Severe Thunderstorm Warning 613, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
219 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN REGIONS WHERE
LAPSE RATES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN FARTHER
EAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT BUT
THROUGH THE EVENING THE EVOLUTION TO A VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
MCS IS EXPECTED. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECTIVE FOR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLOODING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONSIDERING THE WET CONDITIONS THERE.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
THEN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE MCS. FURTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS AND AFTER A FEW
HOT AND HUMID DAYS MID-WEEK...ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ANOTHER MCS EVENT COULD BE SHAPING UP
FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  76  59  87 /  60  70  20   0
HOBART OK         65  78  59  89 /  60  50  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  81  64  90 /  40  60  30  10
GAGE OK           56  80  56  91 /  70  30   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  78  57  87 /  80  50  10   0
DURANT OK         73  84  67  88 /  20  60  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ004>015.

TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO LAWTON AND VERNON...TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS...AND STORMS THAT FORM INITIALLY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.  BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ONE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PERSIST OVER LOCAL AREAS FOR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF TIME CREATING THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY JUN 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...
WILL MAKE TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT ON EAST AND WEST ROADS. THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL EXIST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A STILLWATER TO OKLAHOMA CITY
TO VERNON...TEXAS LINE.  AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY... STORM CHANCES
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKZ018-019-024>026-090230-
LINCOLN OK-LOGAN OK-KINGFISHER OK-CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN...KINGFISHER...
LINCOLN...LOGAN AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LOVELL TO 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF CALUMET AT 902 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 23 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CANADIAN...KINGFISHER...LINCOLN...LOGAN AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF EDMOND...EL RENO...GUTHRIE...
KINGFISHER AND OKLAHOMA CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKZ013-090230-
NOBLE OK-
905 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NOBLE COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
MARLAND TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PERRY AT 905 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NOBLE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

WR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKZ013-020-090300-
NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-
943 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
MORRISON TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CARL BLACKWELL AT 943 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKZ017-023-090330-
BLAINE OK-CADDO OK-
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE AND CADDO COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES WEST OF EAGLE
CITY...TO WEATHERFORD... TO 13 MILES WEST OF ALFALFA AT 1008 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 37 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...SOME SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE AND CADDO COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.