Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR JUNE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
SOME AREAS SOME PROBLEMS THIS AFTN WITH POWER OUTAGES BEING
REPORTED...WILDFIRES AND OTHER ISSUES. THESE WINDS WILL CONT TO BE A
PROBLEM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STRONG WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE EXPECTED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS BEING PRODUCED TO
GO ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING.

MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY... HOWEVER
SFC BOUNDARIES WILL CONT TO BE IN THE AREA WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MAIN SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL KEEP US IN THE
WARM/MUGGY AIR... BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE.
SFC FRONT MAY PUSH BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  90  72  91 /  60  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  96  72  94 /  60  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  93  75  93 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           58  92  72  94 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  75  91 /  70  20  10  10
DURANT OK         73  88  74  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALTUS TO CLINTON TO
ALVA... AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALTUS TO DUNCAN TO SHAWNEE TO
PRAGUE. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...
WHICH INCLUDES WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MOST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH
OR MORE... LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND POSSIBLY STRONG LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A HIGH STATE OF READINESS... AND PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL RESIDENTS IN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY ... REVIEW SAFETY PLANS... LISTEN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES
AND WARNINGS... AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. UNUSUALLY STRONG
SOUTH WINDS... EVEN FOR THE PLAINS... WILL BRING VERY UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A DRY LINE... WHICH WILL
MOVE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM... RESULTING
IN VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THAT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST... AT SPEEDS
WELL OVER 50 MPH. STORMS INITIALLY MAY HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA... WHICH ALONG WITH RAPID FORWARD SPEED
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY EARLY
EVENING... SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND THE RISK OF
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. LATE THIS EVENING... STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A SQUALL
LINE AND MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOW
ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER DARK...
BUT LARGE HAIL... FLOODING RAIN... AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAM STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING SPOTTY
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS MANY MILES AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...OR IN REGIONS WHERE AIR IS FLOWING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...NEAR 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING... FOR SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 30 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH.

WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH BEHIND THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

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