Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL YIELD TEMPORARILY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HEAT...ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOW TO FALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED EARLIER
TODAY FROM ABOUT ALVA TO GAGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST...WITH ACTIVITY
APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS MAY
SURVIVE JUST A FEW TENS OF MILES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HELP FROM A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS
EVENT MATERIALIZES...IT SHOULD AFFECT A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA...BUT SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST AND
EJECTING OVER THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY FEATURES THE GREATEST
CYCLOGENESIS OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS...WHILE THE WEAK FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN
AND PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES
THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF NEAR DORMANT VEGETATION. STOPPED
JUST SHORT OF ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AS THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING EVIDENCE RIGHT NOW. RAPID DEEPENING
OF THE LOW...DEEP MIXING AND MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORT AN
ADVISORY...BUT THE UNUSUALLY WARM ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL JET WELL ABOVE THE GROUND WITH A VEERING PROFILE AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AT LOW LEVELS. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT ASSESS
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY.

DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF
ANOMALOUSLY WARM 700 MB TEMPS. THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL...HOWEVER...INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH. GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND STRONG STORMS WILL BE FROM NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS MID LEVEL COOLING AND LIFT
TOWARD WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS CYCLE WILL REPEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
POPS BACK UP...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH PASSING NEAR AND NORTH
OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS. NO CHANGES TO GRIDDED FORECAST BEYOND
DAY THREE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         74 104  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75 100  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           66 102  70  97 /  20  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  95  79  90 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         74  93  73  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010.

TX...NONE.
&&

BURKE/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
455 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARNETT TO
MEDFORD.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM TO
10 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING WELL AFTER DARK.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO TEXAS...
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR ARNETT AND MEDFORD...WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY... BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... BEFORE ENDING IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES... AND
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TO VERY HIGH
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
EACH AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

24/II

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