Severe Thunderstorm Warning 545, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY FROM TX PANHANDLE ACROSS N OK WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE KS/OK AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE FARTHER E INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTING N INTO KS TONIGHT AND MONDAY... BUT
EFFECTS OF CONVECTION MAY HOLD IT FARTHER S. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BACK THEM OFF
MONDAY-TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE
FOR SEVERE STORMS... BUT STRENGTHENING CAP UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LIMITED FORCING WILL KEEP CHANCES OF INITIATION RELATIVELY LOW.
THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE S KS AND N OK AREA - AS THEY HAVE DONE THE LAST
COUPLE MORNINGS - OR THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN E CO AND W KS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE E. SO CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS N OK THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.
STORMS ALSO MAY GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND MOVE ESE/SE TONIGHT TOWARD N OK... BUT THINK THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN N OF OUR AREA.

UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W COAST MAY BECOME A BIT PLAYER
IN OUR WX AROUND TUE NIGHT AND WED AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND NUDGES THE FRONTAL ZONE BACK S INTO THE AREA. 06Z NAM
IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING AN MCS-ISH LOOKING AREA OF PRECIP
ACROSS N OK TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS
THE N TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TROUBLE BREWING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
INTO THE W BY WED AND PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS THU. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS AMPLIFICATION AND MOVEMENT...
ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL/S
PLAINS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES - OR PARTS
THEREOF - MAY BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY MAJOR SEVERE WX
OUTBREAK AROUND THURSDAY. OVER THE S PLAINS AREA... THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT CAPPING MAY DELAY THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE EVENT
UNTIL THU NIGHT - OR COULD DEACTIVATE IT ENTIRELY THIS FAR S. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER
TROF PROGGED TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK... AND A
LONGWAVE TROF PROGGED TO RELOAD OUT W... THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
WOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. LOW POPS THUS ARE
CARRIED INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT EITHER WASHES OUT OR LIFTS
BACK N OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST ARE LARGELY
FROM GFS-MOS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  70  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         97  71 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  73 100  74 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           90  62  95  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     84  65  92  74 /  40  30  20  10
DURANT OK         94  70  95  73 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
WESTERN... CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE...TO ENID AND STILLWATER. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF MEDFORD...ENID...PONCA CITY...AND STILLWATER. THE SLIGHT
RISK IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA... AND COVERS THAT
PART OF OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM REYDON TO LAWTON TO
WAURIKA... AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE TEXOMA TO COALGATE. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES DUNCAN... ARDMORE... ADA... OKLAHOMA
CITY... CLINTON-WEATHERFORD AND WOODWARD.

TIMING...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL...OVER TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL BE A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREAS SHOULD PLAN TO MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AND SLOW-MOVING FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
SATURDAY EVENING IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SUPERCELLS.

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY FORM ONE OR MORE LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AND MOVE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING A LARGER AREA OF OKLAHOMA.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORM
COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUNE 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT... OVER BASICALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE SLIGHT
RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY... DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL
AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND NEXT THURSDAY... AS A POWERFUL LATE-SPRING STORM SYSTEM FORMS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES... INCLUDING PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION ARE
ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

OKZ004-011145-
HARPER OK-
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER COUNTY.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 62 MILES NORTH OF
ROSSTON TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSSTON AT 600 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 37 MPH.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO HARPER
COUNTY AROUND 630 AM... AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN VERY STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

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