Severe Thunderstorm Warning 474, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SURFACE FRONT ACROSS KANSAS
AND DRYLINE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTN HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK LATE
THIS AFTN. LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS HAS BEEN THE AREA THAT HAS
RECEIVED SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER AT THIS POINT.

COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTN/EVENING. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR
A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMER WX RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...
BUT APPEARS TO BE A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME... BEFORE GFS BUILDS LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  88  60  78 /  40  30  60  10
HOBART OK         71  87  60  78 /  40  30  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  92  67  84 /  20  30  60  20
GAGE OK           62  78  52  77 /  60  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  78  56  73 /  70  40  40  10
DURANT OK         73  95  70  83 /  20  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND A SLIGHT RISK FROM MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO
WATONGA... TO CLINTON... TO HOLLIS. THE SLIGHT RISK IS NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM HOLDENVILLE... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO WICHITA FALLS... TO
SEYMOUR.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE FROM 7 PM THROUGH 5
AM.

IMPACTS...
IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA... VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES. PLAN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN AND
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND MAINLY OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY NEED TO
BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO... AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRY LINE WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE... NEAR THE
CAPROCK.  SURFACE DATA LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE DRY LINE
WAS BECOMING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE... WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING AND WINDS VEERING OVER NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.

THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON... AS WELL
AS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS. DRYLINE STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
FARTHER EAST... IN OR NEAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WHERE MIDDAY
ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP NEAR A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLS... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH
MID EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
EVENING... AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS COMPLEX IS
LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT... WITH A DECREASING
TORNADO RISK BUT A CONTINUING RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY AS THE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN... CENTRAL... AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT IN KANSAS
TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WITH WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL... AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LESS LIKELY ON TUESDAY... BUT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST... WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.
OTHERWISE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED AT 7 AM TUESDAY.

24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

OKZ007-012-262130-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-
405 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD AND GRANT COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF HILLSDALE AT 405
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD AND GRANT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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