Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
7-DAY FORECAST BASED LARGELY ON GFS MOS GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATION. COOLER TUE NIGHT AND WED BEHIND FAIRLY STRONG LATE-
SPRING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE... ATTENTION CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON ONGOING
TORNADO POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN OK. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  90  69  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  94  68  92 /  20  10  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  94  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  90  72  89 /  20  10  20  20
DURANT OK         73  91  72  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PART OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... NORTH OF
ALVA... TO KINGFISHER... TO GUTHRIE... TO CHANDLER.  ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA... INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD PREPARE FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT EXTENDED FROM
FAIRVIEW TO CHANDLER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THERE IS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A REGION OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH FAVORABLE VEERING WINDS ALOFT.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES AND ASSOCIATED VERY LARGE HAIL.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE ZONE
BETWEEN ALVA AND ALTUS. CONVERGENCE HERE WILL BE LESS THAN THAT IN
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... AND THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LARGE HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP IN THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE... WHILE JET STREAM WINDS CARRY STORMS OFF THE DRYLINE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FOCUS ALONG
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL DECREASE... RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             2 E DOUGLAS             36.26N 97.63W
05/24/2008  E1.00 INCH       GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKZ013-020-242300-
NOBLE OK-PAYNE OK-
530 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF LAKE
CARL BLACKWELL AND LAKE MCMURTRY AT 527 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THE STORM ALSO CONTAINED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES AT THESE LAKES SHOULD CEASE...AND PEOPLE
SHOULD GO TO SHELTER...IN ANTICIPATION OF VERY SEVERE WEATHER
ARRIVING IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. THE STORM MAY LATER TRACK TOWARD
STILLWATER...WHERE PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND START THINKING
ABOUT THE BEST PLACE TO TAKE SHELTER...IF THIS STORM SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKZ012-242300-
GARFIELD OK-
538 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FAIRMONT AT 538 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

TXZ083>085-087-088-250100-
HARDEMAN TX-WILBARGER TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-BAYLOR TX-
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BAYLOR...FOARD...HARDEMAN...
KNOX AND WILBARGER COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR MUNDAY TO NEAR CROWELL
AT 747 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST CELLS WERE SOUTHWEST OF MUNDAY AND NORTH OF KNOX CITY.
EXPECT SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN BAYLOR...FOARD...HARDEMAN...KNOX AND WILBARGER COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

OKZ006-007-011-012-250115-
GARFIELD OK-ALFALFA OK-GRANT OK-MAJOR OK-
752 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA...GARFIELD...GRANT
AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...AND AT TIMES...STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
INTENSITY. AT 754 PM CDT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM
AMES TO HELENA TO MEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BURKE