Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
159 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS FOR LATER TODAY... THE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES AND
THE FRONT OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WHERE
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
EXPAND THE CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA. THE GFS PULLS IN QUITE A BIT COOLER AIR IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. ATTM... WE WILL TREND TEMPERATURES LOWER FROM THE
PRIOR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  71  91  71 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         93  70  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           91  63  94  70 /  20  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     89  71  90  72 /  40  20  10  20
DURANT OK         92  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY... TO EL RENO
TO ALTUS.

TIMING...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS... WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE... WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN AND NEAR THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THROUGH THE
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT. SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING. THE DRYLINE STALLED DURING
THE EVENING...BUT A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD CATCHING UP TO THE
DRYLINE THEN CONTINUING INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH A STRONG CAP
SUPPRESSING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE DRY LINE WILL SET UP IN THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE... WHILE JET STREAM WINDS CARRY STORMS OFF THE
DRYLINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FOCUS ALONG
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL DECREASE... RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

30/9/II

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