Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LIKELY WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW AND DRY LINE TO THE WEST OF
OKLAHOMA WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE AND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE EVENING STORM OFF THE DRY LINE WILL AFFECT
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THEN OVERNIGHT MORE STORMS OR A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE UPPER ACROSS THE RED RIVER REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW
WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL MODES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  79  64  74 /  40  40  50  60
HOBART OK         63  82  63  78 /  50  20  60  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  82  64  82 /  50  20  60  40
GAGE OK           62  85  62  77 /  40  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     64  78  66  76 /  30  40  40  70
DURANT OK         62  77  64  79 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE... TO ELK CITY TO HOLLIS.

TIMING...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... WITHIN A BROAD AXIS
OF GULF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE... BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH DIME-SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG... AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

OKZ004-005-010-052045-
WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
326 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PLAINVIEW AT
326 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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