Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE... TO
LAWTON... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL... TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER...
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LATE
TONIGHT... THE MAIN CONCERN OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AT MIDDAY A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA... AND THEN INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIR WAS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT... WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
COOLER AIR WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS NORTH OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING BY
THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
STRONGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES NEVER CAN BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY... VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
MAINLY MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS... AND THEREFORE LIMITED TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

OVERNIGHT... STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN TEXAS... RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE FRONT MAY LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT... MOST LIKELY
OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND MOVE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AS A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR... ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS. AT LOW LEVELS... A MOIST... UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THESE AREAS. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATER IN
THESE AREAS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF RAIN IS WIDESPREAD... SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATER IN THE DAY WILL DECREASE AND THE GREATER RISK WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF RAIN COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY TO SET UP A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY... BUT THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ037-038-044-230745-
COTTON OK-TILLMAN OK-COMANCHE OK-
231 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHWEST COMANCHE...
WESTERN COTTON AND EASTERN TILLMAN COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF LOVELAND AT 231 AM
CDT WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS 5 MILE SOUTHWEST OF CHATTANOOGA.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ038-230800-
COMANCHE OK-
245 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CACHE AT 245 AM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

CJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ036-037-231145-
JACKSON OK-TILLMAN OK-
628 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JACKSON AND TILLMAN
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF HUMPHREYS AT 628
AM CDT...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN TILLMAN AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ035>037-231245-
JACKSON OK-KIOWA OK-TILLMAN OK-
735 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JACKSON...KIOWA AND TILLMAN
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF TIPTON AT 735 AM
CDT...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY.

PEOPLE IN JACKSON...KIOWA AND TILLMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..SPEG.