Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
322 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THIS ONES A MESS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT ARE
CERTAIN BUT SFC TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE WILL PRESENT ENORMOUS
CHALLENGES. FZRA CURRENTLY CENTRAL/SW OK S/SE-WARD INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN N TX AND SCENTRAL/ECENTRAL OK. SFC TEMPS HOVERING CLOSE TO
BUT JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THESE AREAS... AND LOW LEVELS ARE
SATURATED OR VERY NEARLY SO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THIS
MORNING... BUT ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP WILL ALLEVIATE THE ICING
POTENTIAL. WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BEING BROUGHT
DOWN BY PRECIP... THINK MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF OF EXPOSED
SURFACES BEFORE FREEZING. THUS THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIP BURSTS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IT IS THROUGH 16Z... AND LOWER THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO A FRZG RAIN ADVY FROM THE RED RIVER AREA OF SW OK/N
TX NE-WARD INTO THE OKC AREA THROUGH 18Z. FARTHER N... WINTER STORM
WARNING ALREADY OUT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AND THERE IS GREATER CONCERN
FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER A LONGER DURATION AS DEWPOINTS/WETBULB
TEMPS ARE LOWER ACROSS MOST OF NW OK. TO SIMPLIFY THINGS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE... WE WILL RUN THE WARNING AREA THAT WAS ISSUED THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM THE CURRENT TIME AND MAINTAIN THE 18Z SUNDAY
EXPIRATION. ALTHOUGH NCENTRAL OK MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATER
TODAY... MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WARNING AREA MAY FLIRT WITH 32 OR
REMAIN BELOW IT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... PERHAPS INTO THIS EVENING...
AS WET BULBING OFFSETS ANY MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT QPF OF 0.5 TO OVER 1 INCH... THIS COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT
ICE STORM FOR PARTS OF WCENTRAL/NW OK WHERE ICE ACCRETION ON EXPOSED
SURFACES IS APT TO BE MORE EFFICIENT THAN FARTHER S/E.

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS W TX
AND S/E OK TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW
TRACK FOR W AND N OK... BUT AGAIN THE ISSUE BECOMES PRECIP TYPE.
DEEP LAYER COOLING WITH THE APPROACHING COLD CORE EVENTUALLY SHOULD
INDUCE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NW OK THIS EVENING... AND
WCENTRAL-NCENTRAL-CENTRAL OK LATER TONIGHT. QPFS FROM THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO THE W AND N OF THE UPPER LOW
AND DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE... AND EASILY WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOW IF CHANGEOVER OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH. PROGGED SFC TEMPS
WOULD INDICATE A RELATIVELY HEAVY/WET SNOW... WHICH AT LEAST COULD
COMPOUND ANY ICE LOAD ISSUES FROM THE PRECIP TODAY. STRONG N-NW
WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW WILL ONLY MAKE MATTERS
WORSE... BUT BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL BE LIMITED IF THE SNOW HAS A
HIGH LIQUID WATER CONTENT. STRONG KICKER TROUGH NOW DIGGING ACROSS
WA/OR WILL SERVE TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUR E ON SUNDAY...
WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY SW TO NE BY MIDDAY.

NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS OR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BEYOND
SUNDAY... AS ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON EVENTS UNFOLDING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  33  43  25 / 100 100  50  10
HOBART OK         34  30  45  28 / 100  90  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  34  52  30 / 100  60  20  10
GAGE OK           33  29  43  21 / 100  70  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  30  38  24 / 100 100  60  10
DURANT OK         52  39  48  32 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ019-025-
     027>029-033>038-044.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>018-
     021>024.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ020-
     026-030-031-039>042-045.

TX...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ083-085-086.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ084-
     087>090.

&&

06/24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ090-160900-
CLAY TX-
229 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF NEWPORT AT 229 AM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

OKZ034-036-160915-
JACKSON OK-GREER OK-
232 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GREER AND JACKSON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELDORADO AT 232 AM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

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