Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED ECHOES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS DECREASE AND
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING SOON ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INSTABILITY
INCREASING... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET. BEST LOW
LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM/ IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...
SO AGREE WITH THE SPC SEVERE WEATHER AND SPECIFIC THREAT
POTENTIAL. OTHER SHORT-TERM ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... MODEL PROGS OF LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW ENHANCED LIFT WITH
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS THE GEOGRAPHY OF MOST CONCERN COVERED WELL
AND WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.

PRECIP WILL PUSH TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AND WARMING YET MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. NEXT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
RETURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  47  63  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
HOBART OK         44  62  39  70 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  65  43  75 /  60  20   0   0
GAGE OK           40  63  37  73 /  20  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     41  61  38  66 /  20  10   0   0
DURANT OK         52  62  45  70 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ021-033-034-
     036.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
218 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHAWNEE...TO
CHICKASHA...TO WALTERS...TO SEYMOUR. A SLIGHT RISK AREA EXISTS NORTH
AND WEST OF THIS MODERATE RISK AREA...AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER...TO WEATHERFORD AND ALTUS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THOSE GROUPS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALSO SHOULD PLAN FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE A DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...
PROBABLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT... DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN IF THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... DUE
TO POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SATURATED AREAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS EFFECTIVE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

30

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