Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE
POINT SETTING UP IN FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL TRACK EAST THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXTEND WELL BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND HAIL AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS ENID...CLINTON...LAWTON..HENRIETTA TEXAS. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION...AND A PACIFIC
FRONT...TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE THIS MORNING...SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF LIFT OCCURRING. EXPECT STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ERUPT AS THE LIFT REMOVES THE CAP IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NEAR AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. POSSIBLY A SEVERE SQUALL
LINE...THOUGH WITH TIME OF DAY...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AS
NEAR SURFACE LAYER REMAINS STABLE.

FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY...A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN AS THE
COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. AFTER A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SUSPECT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE ONLY DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN REACH
FREEZING...FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS BORDERLINE...HOWEVER...AND MAINLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN
THE DAYTIME OCCURRENCE OF THE PRECIP...AND RECENT WARM
WEATHER/GROUND...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. IT MAY BECOME A SHORT TERM PROBLEM...OVER A SMALL AREA...OF
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WILL UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS THEN DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD...AS BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. A GLANCING BLOW OF CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH AMOUNT OF
COOLING...GIVEN EXPECTED LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND BACKDOOR NATURE OF
THE FRONT. MADE SOME CHANGES TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND BLEND WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  45  26  48  28 /  80  20   0   0
HOBART OK         41  25  51  29 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  28  55  34 /  30   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  18  44  22 /  70  30   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     38  21  41  26 /  80  40   0  10
DURANT OK         68  31  50  34 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
728 PM CST CST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER CITY
TEXAS... TO DUNCAN... TO NORMAN... TO CHANDLER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY OCCUR FROM HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

MINOR WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS MAY OCCUR FROM
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH.

THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM... AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS...
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR... RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY LINE... LYING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING... WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MOIST AND
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT THE SAME TIME
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING... AND WILL
INTERSECT THE DRY LINE BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT NEAR OR JUST
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP QUICKLY AT
THAT TIME... AND MOVE EAST ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK.

STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THE LONGER LIVED STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE POTENT COMBINATION
OF THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY... AND OCCUR AT A
TIME WHEN MOST PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING. PEOPLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD CHECK THAT THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS ARE IN GOOD WORKING
ORDER... AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT LATE
TONIGHT FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY FEB 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MANY
AREAS THAT SAW RECORD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL FALL QUICKLY
INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... BEFORE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY
MIDDAY. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS ON TUESDAY... RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS... UP TO AN INCH OR SO...
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24

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