River Flood Warning 55, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
356 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUING TO SPREAD DEEP MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL
+RA ACROSS W/N PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... AND APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOING SO AT LEAST INTO TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR SE ZONES AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF IKE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN
RETOOLING THE FLOOD WATCH AND HAVE STARTED BY FRAGGING IT INTO 2
WATCHES. FLOOD WATCH NOW IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR W AND N THROUGH THE
DAY SAT AND IS DISCONTINUED BEYOND THAT. OTHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE
FOR OUR SCENTRAL/SE OK ZONES BUT WILL NOW START LATE SATURDAY.
MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT IKE RECURVING AND
ACCELERATING NE ACROSS E TX INTO SE OK AND AR OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD AS FAR AS HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE
OUT. WE WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST TPC/NHC/HPC FORECASTS WHICH LEAN
TOWARD A FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE REMNANT LOW SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN... BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME POPS INTO SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MAY
WELL SHIFT THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN S AND E OF OUR
AREA... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT LARGE SIZE OF IKE THE RISK MAY
ENCOMPASS A BROADER SWATH PERSISTING AFTER LANDFALL. GFS IS AMONG
THE SLOWER MODELS WITH IKES REMNANTS... BUT THE GFS-MOS POP
DISTRIBUTION LOOKS DECENT OVERALL. HAVE LOWERED THE GFS POPS ON
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT WE THINK WILL BE A FASTER EXIT OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN BETWEEN THE MOIST PLUME W/N AND IKE SE... THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO
BE A ZONE OF RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ROUGHLY
FROM CENTRAL/NCENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY STILL NONZERO IN THESE
AREAS... WE HAVE PULLED THE WATCH FROM THESE AREAS TO PLACE THE
FOCUS ON THE PERCEIVED AREAS OF GREATER FLOODING POTENTIAL. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO PULL IT BACK IN TO SOME OF THESE AREAS
LATER ON... BUT FOR THE TIME BEING THE POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TOO
LOW TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING IT.

BEYOND SUNDAY... LOOKS LIKE DRY AND PLEASANT LATE-SUMMER EARLY-
FALL CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER
CENTRAL/E ROCKIES PLACING AREA IN LIGHT N/NW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MEX TEMP/POP GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES COOL NIGHTS... MILD
DAYS... AND NEGLIGIBLE POPS EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPS AND CONTINUED MINIMAL POPS MID-LATE WEEK. MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR A WEAKNESS ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY MID
WEEK... AS INDICATED BY 00Z ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE 18Z DGEX BUT NONE FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  71  79  68 /  60  50  70  80
HOBART OK         82  71  80  66 /  60  50  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  72  83  69 /  40  30  70  80
GAGE OK           77  61  80  57 /  80  50  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     82  71  83  66 /  80  70  60  70
DURANT OK         87  71  79  67 /  30  30  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>018-021-022-
     033>036.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     OKZ031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

26/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
WITH GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT. A JET STREAM
ALIGNED FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD THE PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...INITIALLY ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
EVENTUALLY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROWELL AND VERNON TEXAS
TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THIS LINE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LOWER
RAIN TOTALS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
AFFECT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCH TOWARD
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO KEEP FLOODING RAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IF YOU LIVE
IN OR NEAR AN AREA THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING...YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY STEPS TO MINIMIZE FLOODING IMPACTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

BURKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N PUTNAM              35.90N 98.97W
09/12/2008  M7.30 INCH       DEWEY              OK   MESONET

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE SAYRE              35.31N 99.62W
09/12/2008  M3.98 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LEEDEY                  35.87N 99.35W
09/12/2008  M4.45 INCH       DEWEY              OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ERICK                   35.21N 99.87W
09/12/2008  M4.20 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW CAMARGO           36.04N 99.35W
09/12/2008  M6.51 INCH       DEWEY              OK   MESONET

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW CHEYENNE           35.55N 99.75W
09/12/2008  M3.69 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   MESONET

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLACKWELL               36.80N 97.28W
09/12/2008  M3.38 INCH       KAY                OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WAYNOKA                 36.58N 98.88W
09/12/2008  M4.30 INCH       WOODS              OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WNW SEILING           36.19N 99.04W
09/12/2008  M5.89 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

            THE TOTAL WAS A 24-HOUR ACCUMULATION.

&&

DS/TY