Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER AT LEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

SHORT-RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD... AND SHOWS MOST OF THE
RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND... MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT QUITE A BIT... BUT THE PREVIOUS RUN
OF THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST BET. THE NEW RUN APPEARS
TO YANK THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IKE OUT OF HERE FAR TOO FAST...
WHILE THE GFS STILL LOOKS FAR TOO SLOW. THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
FROM NHC AND HPC ALSO PREFERS THE 10/12Z ECMWF... WHICH PLACES
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS THAT IKE WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST... AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA... WITH HIGHS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RAIN-COOLED HIGHS OF THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER AN AREA OF RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG... ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHEN AND WHERE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN.

THE FLOOD WATCH WAS UPDATED RECENTLY... AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INITIAL WATCH. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT
LOCATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA... WHICH IS WHY THE WATCH COVERS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
DEPENDING ON FUTURE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE
IKE... THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY IN TIME AND
SPACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  71  85  70 /  90  70  40  50
HOBART OK         77  71  83  69 /  80  80  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  71  88  72 /  70  50  30  30
GAGE OK           78  66  76  64 /  70 100  80  60
PONCA CITY OK     77  69  83  68 /  90  90  60  60
DURANT OK         84  72  86  71 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

11/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
WITH GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT. A JET STREAM
ALIGNED FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD THE PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...INITIALLY ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
EVENTUALLY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROWELL AND VERNON TEXAS
TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THIS LINE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LOWER
RAIN TOTALS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
AFFECT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCH TOWARD
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO KEEP FLOODING RAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IF YOU LIVE
IN OR NEAR AN AREA THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING...YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY STEPS TO MINIMIZE FLOODING IMPACTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

OKZ014-016-021-022-033>036-111600-
ROGER MILLS OK-CUSTER OK-BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-JACKSON OK-KIOWA OK-
GREER OK-HARMON OK-
1019 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...CUSTER...GREER...
HARMON...JACKSON...KIOWA...ROGER MILLS AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.  SOME OF THE
RAIN WAS VERY HEAVY WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES PER
HOUR.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOME
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RESULT AND FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING.  PLEASE KEEP ADVISED OF THE
LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

OKZ014>017-021-022-033>035-111800-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-BLAINE OK-CUSTER OK-BECKHAM OK-WASHITA OK-
KIOWA OK-GREER OK-HARMON OK-
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...BLAINE...CUSTER...
DEWEY...GREER...HARMON...KIOWA...ROGER MILLS AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

AT 1218 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOVING TO THE NORTH AROUND 30 MPH.

THE RAIN WAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS TO HOBART TO BINGER
AND EL RENO.  SOME OF THE RAIN WAS VERY HEAVY WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
MAY RESULT AND FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS THIS
AFTERNOON.  PLEASE KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS.