Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
319 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE TX PANHANDLE TODAY WILL CONT TO MEANDER
AROUND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONT TO
PROVIDE MUCH OF OK AND N TX WITH PRECIP CHANCES WITH GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST BY WED INTO THU.

ALTHOUGH HAVE HAD SOME HEAVIER RAIN TODAY... IT REMAINS FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THAT AREA WILL CONT TO SHIFT
LOCATIONS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. UPPER LOW
MAY/SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU AS IT GETS KICKED OUT
AS LARGE WAVE MOVES ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS WAVE WILL TRY AND DRAG A SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA
BY SAT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO LIKELY CONT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE SOME WARMER TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  79  64  77 /  60  50  50  60
HOBART OK         65  78  63  80 /  70  50  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  79  63  83 /  70  60  30  30
GAGE OK           57  80  57  79 /  50  30  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     63  81  64  77 /  30  20  50  50
DURANT OK         67  73  66  80 /  90  80  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
MAKE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
STORM IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

30