Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR JUNE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED
SOME AREAS SOME PROBLEMS THIS AFTN WITH POWER OUTAGES BEING
REPORTED...WILDFIRES AND OTHER ISSUES. THESE WINDS WILL CONT TO BE A
PROBLEM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STRONG WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE EXPECTED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA AND COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS BEING PRODUCED TO
GO ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING.

MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY... HOWEVER
SFC BOUNDARIES WILL CONT TO BE IN THE AREA WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. MAIN SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND... WHICH WILL KEEP US IN THE
WARM/MUGGY AIR... BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE.
SFC FRONT MAY PUSH BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  90  72  91 /  60  20  10  10
HOBART OK         69  96  72  94 /  60  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  93  75  93 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           58  92  72  94 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  88  75  91 /  70  20  10  10
DURANT OK         73  88  74  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
725 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO
ELK CITY...TO HOLLIS. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES ENID...PONCA
CITY...LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...AND THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH OR
HIGHER...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESIDENTS IN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY...REVIEW SAFETY PLANS...LISTEN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION.

DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TENDED TO FORM LINES...
WHICH RESULTS IN A CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING
RAINFALL. AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME STORMS ALONG THE LINE TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING ROTATION.  STORMS OF THAT SORT THAT ARE
EMBEDDED IN A LINE OF OTHER STORMS OFTEN PRODUCE AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE FROM GUSTS OVER 75 MPH AND SOMETIMES
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT POSED DIRECTLY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...CREATING SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE MANY MILES AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

11

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