Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS New York, NY

000 
WWUS41 KOKX 311651
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1150 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...A FAST MOVING BUT INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ079-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090101T0100Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1150 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING. MAXIMUM SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE FORECAST. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASE...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES...AS WELL AS DESTROYING LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND OTHER
UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.

TRAVELING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH WINDS AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

CTZ005-009-NJZ002>004-NYZ067>071-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-081231T2200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1150 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH
THE 20S...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS AREA ROADS.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS AND WIRES...AS WELL AS DESTROYING
LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072>077-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-081231T2200Z/
ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
1150 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1
INCH TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH
THE 20S...RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS AREA
ROADS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS AND WIRES...AS WELL AS DESTROYING
LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NYZ078-080-081-312200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-090101T0100Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1150 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH
THE 20S...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS AREA
ROADS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS AND WIRES...AS WELL AS DESTROYING
LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KOKX 312040
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
340 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...A FAST MOVING BUT INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD WILL AFFECT THE REGION...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>077-312145-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-081231T2200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
340 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 5 PM
THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.

$$

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ079-010100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090101T0100Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
340 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW COULD REDEVELOP AND PRODUCE MAXIMUM HOURLY
RATES OF 1 INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7
INCHES.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS NORTHWEST WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASE...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES...AS WELL AS DESTROYING LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND
OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.

TRAVELING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH WINDS AND NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NYZ078-080-081-010100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-090101T0100Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
340 PM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.

HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 20S...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
AREA ROADS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE LIMBS AND WIRES...AS WELL AS
DESTROYING LOOSE HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR
ITEMS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
437 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. THIS LOW RACES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PHASING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG TO
THE DELMARVA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN PIVOT OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. AS A RESULT LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE TO THE NJ COAST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS E...JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON....AND THEN TO SE OF CAPE COD BY THIS
EVENING. A QUICK NOTE...SECONDARY AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FAVORING COLDER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF NAM.

DEVELOPING LLJ AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BREAK OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM W TO E THIS
MORNING.

TEMP PROFILE WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT ACROSS LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CONN...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ...AND LIKELY THE
NORTHEAST 1/3RD OF LONG ISLAND. TAKING A BLEND GFS/NAM TRACK OF
LOW...WOULD EXPECT SOME MIXING WITH RAIN FROM THE ONSET OR SHORTLY
AFTER ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF NE NJ ZONES...SOUTHERN NYC
BOROUGHS...AND SOUTHERN HALF OF LI COUNTIES AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES S
OF THE AREA AND ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. WITH TRACK OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LI...WOULD ALSO EXPECT
THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS TO EVEN SEE PRECIP BRIEFLY TAPER OR
BECOME SCATTERED AS THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN SLIDES INTO THE CONN ZONES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH AND HEAVIEST SNOW
AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...THIS ENHANCED FORCING MAY SLIDE AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH
EASTERN LI AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TO NE THEN NW
AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE...AND ALL
PRECIP TURNING BACK TO SNOW. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW AS UPPER ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SWEEPING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SO IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL...WITH QPF AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH WITH THE
FAST MOVING SYSTEM...EXPECTING A 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CONN WITH BETTER SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS. CLOSER TO
3 TO 4 ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
SE CT WITH LONGER DURATION IN HEAVIER LIFT/QPF AXIS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SE CLOSER TO THE 6 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
HAVEN/NEW LONDON/MIDDLESEX.

1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NE NJ...NYC...WITH MIXING AND PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF DRY-SLOTTING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THESE AREAS.

HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SUFFOLK COUNTY GETTING INTO SOME
DEFORMATION BANDING...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH SHORE. NORTHEAST
SUFFOLK COUNTY ZONES WHICH BASED ON STORM TRACK SHOULD SEE LIMITED
MIXING AND WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR LONGER...SO
THINKING ACCUM OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THAT NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES...STRONG CAA...500 HPA VORT
PASSING OVER THE REGION...AND 50-55 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850-900
HPA...THINKING ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A 1-3 HR BURST OF
HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. SO WILL PUT UP
HIGH WIND WARNING.

TO COMPOUND THIS...IF DEFORMATION BAND COMES THROUGH AS
EXPECTED...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT DURATION
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...COASTAL LOCALS WILL HAVE STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
TOP OF RAPIDLY FREEZING WATER OR SLUSH FROM THE MORNING. WITH ALL
THIS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE WILL EXPAND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REST OF REGION BASED ON IMPACT. WILL UPGRADE
NEW LONDON/MIDDLESEX/AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM
WARNING AND ADD IN NE SUFFOLK WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE IN
FALLING...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
COMBINED IN WINTER STORM WARNING. WITH AN EARLY NEW YEARS EVE
COMMUTE...IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIALLY HUGE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES NE
OF AREA. HIGH WINDS WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH REDUCED
VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW...AND DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE RACING TO
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL OF WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH TROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE
TONIGHT AS CAA BURST WANES AND GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND ROAD CREWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BUSY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS CITY/COAST
AND SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR. WIND CHILL READINGS PLUMMETING TO 0 TO 8
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CITY/COAST AND 8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT. MIDNIGHT NYC TEMPS FOR THE BALL DROP
WILL BE AROUND 20 WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 0. WILL ADDRESS
WIND CHILLS...PARTICULARLY FOR NYC...IN HWO TO PREVENT TOO MANY
COMPLICATIONS WITH RUNNING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME LATE DAY
CIRRUS. WINDY DAY...15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S AREAWIDE. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN
THE MORNING...RISING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS(INTERIOR) TO LOWER
TEENS(CITY/COAST) IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO
THE SOUTH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED THURS EVENING...BEFORE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS LIKELY
DROPPING IN THE LOW TEENS/PERHAPS SINGLE DIGITS IN FAR OUTLYING
AREAS...GENERALLY TEENS ELSEWHERE...LOWER 20S NY/NJ METRO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR FRI/FRI
NIGHT. CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES THURS
NIGHT/FRI...AND THEN THROUGH THE NE LATE/FRI NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND CENTRAL NE ENGLAND.
THIS IS NOT A VERY FRUITFUL TRACK IN TERMS OF PRECIP FOR THE
REGION. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS(SNOW/RAIN CITY/COAST) ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD...AND THEN WITH SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING
THROUGH FRI/FRI EVENING. BUT MODELS KEEP EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST STRONG NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD...WITH LITTLE QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW RACES NE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SAT WITH WINDY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS SUN WITH WAA PRECIP POSSIBLE BY SUN NIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMENDMENTS JUST SENT TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP AT ALL TERMINALS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS. PRECIP FIGHTING VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ATTM.
TAFS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 06Z VERSION OTHERWISE...WITH
DIFFICULT DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE NY/NJ/CT AIRSPACE.

ASIDE FROM CONDS SPELLED OUT IN TAFS...PLUMMETING TEMPS WILL MEAN ICING
FOR RAMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

BLOWING SNOW INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...ANY BLOWING SNOW ENDS AS WIND
SLOWLY DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY. VFR INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SATURDAY...STRONG NW WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. LOOKING AT A VERY RAPID
DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN ABOUT 23Z TUESDAY AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS 55 TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE.

WIND DRIVEN SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OVER 10 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 6 FT ON LI SOUND.

FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FREEZING SPRAY...ESPECIALLY IN BAYS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND WHERE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SEA SURFACE TEMPS ON THE OCEAN ARE RIGHT NEAR THE 45 DEG THRESHOLD.
BUT WITH VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING AND SUCH STRONG WINDS...IT IS LIKELY
THAT LARGER VESSELS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT ICING WELL ABOVE THE WATER
LINE.

WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TONIGHT...AND MAY STILL GUST TO
STORM FORCE ACROSS EASTERN WATERS PAST 06Z. WILL LIKELY NEED GALE
WARNINGS AFTER THE STORM WARNINGS EXPIRE AT 06Z.

WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY...WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOOKING LESS OF A DIRECT
THREAT...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE IMPACTS FROM A
COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...MAINLY SNOW. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH QPF WITH FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW WATER PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING LOW TIDE CYCLE
NOT EXPECTED. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ABOUT 1.5 FT LOW WATER
ANOMALIES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER TWO REASONS WHY PROBLEMS PROBABLY
WILL NOT OCCUR. FIRST...EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE PILING UP
WATER...ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE MLLW. SECOND...THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER LOW TIDE THIS EVENING..SO NOT
ENOUGH TIME FOR TRUE BLOWOUT TIDES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ006>008-010>012.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ005-009.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>078-080-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ067>077.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078-
     080-081.
NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ002>006-011.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BS
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
354 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ079-011100-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
354 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

ALSO...VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE WINTER STORM DEPARTS
WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005-009-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>077-011100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
354 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WARNING.

ALSO...VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING WILL
COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ078-080-081-011100-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
354 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WARNING.

ALSO...VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING WILL
COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-011100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
354 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.
   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COASTAL STORM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.