Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
807 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION...PRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST CANCELLING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #813
FOR NYC/NORTHEAST NJ/THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MARINE ZONES
ANZ355-338 AND EXTENDING IT UNTIL 9 PM FOR CT AND NASSAU COUNTY
AND MARINE ZONE ANZ335.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND SFC LOW PRES WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OVER NJ/NYC THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 12Z/07
NAM SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD QPF AS COMPARED WITH THE
12Z/07 OPERATIONAL GFS. THERE IS PROBABLY A BIT TO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE NAM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS AND
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS UP FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WITH CAPE VALUES RISING TO 1500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEXES TO FALL TO -5 LATE TONIGHT...WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WILL MAINLY LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...AS OPPOSED TO AN ORGANIZED LINE.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE REGION.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRI...KEEPING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
STILL COULD BE SOME POTENT STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS CAPE VALUES
RISE TO 1100 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX REMAINS AROUND -5. LATEST GFS
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES INVERTED-V PATTERN...SUGGESTING HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END AFTER SUNSET FRI
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST ON SAT KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FCST. WILL HAVE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUN...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
IT TRACKS EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...THEN SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TUE AND WED...AND
WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WED. 06Z/07 GFS BRINGS IT
RIGHT OVER THE AREA...WHILE 00Z/07 ECMWF BRINGS IT OVER THE AREA
TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE AND
CARRY CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...DRY WX WILL BE IN PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY
IN ANY CONVECTION. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER 40 KT. TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WILL GENERALLY EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUN...THEN SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KT AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH TSTMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND
COULD BE HIGHER WHERE STORMS TRAIN AND BACKBUILD. CURRENTLY...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND WOULD EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND. AS
WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NYC/NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THIS EVENING.

PWATS AVERAGING 1.25 TO 1.5. FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN HEAVIEST
STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
STORMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
746 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

CTZ005>007-009>011-NYZ077-081100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-NASSAU-
746 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 813 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ008-012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>076-078>081-081100-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
746 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-081100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
746 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 813 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355-081100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
746 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
637 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             STRATFORD               41.20N 73.13W
08/07/2008  M1.00 INCH       FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING GROUND

&&

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
655 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRUMBULL                41.26N 73.21W
08/07/2008                   FAIRFIELD          CT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN

&&

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
705 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NYZ078-079-081-080000-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-
705 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...GUST FRONT FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND WILL
IMPACT SUFFOLK COUNTY...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A GUST FRONT WITH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11
MILES SOUTH OF BRANFORD TO ROCKY POINT TO STONY BROOK...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILFORD TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WADING RIVER TO STONY BROOK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
13 MPH.

THE GUST FRONT WILL BE...
  NEAR PORT JEFFERSON BY 715 PM.
  NEAR STONY BROOK BY 720 PM.
  NEAR ROCKY POINT BY 725 PM.
  NEAR WADING RIVER BY 735 PM.
  NEAR MIDDLE ISLAND BY 745 PM.
  NEAR FARMINGVILLE BY 750 PM.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

GOODMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
709 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NE BRIDGEPORT           41.19N 73.20W
08/07/2008                   FAIRFIELD          CT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FUNNEL CLOUD SEEN 1/2 MILE TO THE NORTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORT

&&

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
720 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

NYZ078-079-080030-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-
720 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR NORTHPORT...AND MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR SMITHTOWN BY 730 PM.
  NEAR STONY BROOK BY 745 PM.
  NEAR CENTEREACH BY 750 PM.
  NEAR PORT JEFFERSON BY 755 PM.
  NEAR MOUNT SINAI BY 800 PM.
  NEAR CORAM BY 805 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER
HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MPS

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