Gale Watch 7, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1211 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL TRACK NE THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...USHERING IN AN VERY COLD AIR MASS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE APPALACHIANS AND A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING AND AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES COULD PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH OCEANIC
INFLUENCE AND APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SAT
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
LIGHTENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ONE CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY IS IF THERE WILL BE AN ACTUALLY BREAK IN
THE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT LIGHTER
PRECIP...BUT WITH MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASING...THERE MAY NOT BE A
COMPLETE LET UP.

THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
DEEP ASCENT...AS A STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WELL ADVERTISED
COLD FRONT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO ALSO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM EX-
TROPICAL SYSTEM (PALOMA). WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH A STABLE SURFACE LAYER...WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE FULLY REALIZED AT THE SFC. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
CAREFULLY...AS 60-70 KT WINDS AT 950MB ARE POSSIBLE.

NOT ISSUING ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS THE MAIN WIND
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN ISOLATED CONVECTION.

STILL DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT TIMING...WITH A FROPA IN NYC
AROUND 06Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT HAS
CONTINUITY ON TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.

COULD SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. SEE HYDRO SECTION
FOR QPF DISCUSSION.

STRONG WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE WELL MIXED POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY...WITH ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE. TEMPS STEADY OR
FALLING THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSISTS OF MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL KEEP
SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND
THE GRADIENT RELAXES....BUT RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS ON THU...BUT THINK NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIP
MAKING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED BREEZY WITH POSSIBLY LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON FRI.

EACH SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE 40S DURING
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS BEFORE 06Z SHOULD
GO BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHPN/KBDR
WHERE LIFR EXPECTED...AND VLIFR AT KISP/KGON.

AS RAIN ARRIVES TOAWRD MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...
THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS BUT STILL
IFR/LIFR. NLDN SHOWS PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER N CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VA WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING IN FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCTS FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z.
AS 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERRIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY.

AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICK UP AT MOST TERMINALS TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT...
AND CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NOT AS QUICKLY AS MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES. LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT...BETWEEN 23Z-05Z WESTERN SECTIONS AND 01Z-06Z EASTERN
SECTIONS...WITH IFR...LLWS/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER.

OUTLOOK...SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF SAT NIGHT...THEN
VFR WITH GUSTY W FLOW ON SUN. VFR PROBABLE MON/TUE...WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF MVFR. VFR LIKELY ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELL IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT...
THUS THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
REMAINING WATERS STARTING MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT IF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT THIS WOULD BE HANDLED WITH SHORT FUSE
PRODUCTS.

BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED GALE GUSTS IS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND. ITS CLOSE HERE...BUT CONFIDENCE
ISNT AS HIGH AS ON REMAINING ZONES.

SMALL CRAFT/GALE GUSTS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO MON. THEN QUIET THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH SCA...POSSIBLY
GALE ON THE OCEAN WATERS RETURNING TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. SCA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH WED FOR PRIMARILY FOR SEAS BUT
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES. RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS EXPECTED...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS MINOR
URBAN AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE EXPECTED ALONG QUEENS/NASSAU
BACK BAYS WITH SAT AM TIDE CYCLE. ADVISORY ISSUED.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES...AND NECESSITATE
A LOW WATER ADVISORY BE ISSUED EITHER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ076-077.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR      ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
950 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>075-078>081-160300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
950 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ076-077-160300-
QUEENS-NASSAU-
950 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355-160300-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
950 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ335-338-160300-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
950 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.