Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE EARLIER WARNINGS, THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED WELL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

AT 08Z, 988 MB SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER IOWA, WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE LOW.
THUS, LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS THAT WHICH IS OCCURRING NOW. MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
STILL IN PLACE, WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER TODAY OR
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
MID STATE, DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A TRUE NORTHWEST WIND UNTIL
SUNDAY. GFS DEPICTS DEEP OCCLUDED FRONT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SUNDAY, THUS BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF RAIN LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SKIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE
30S, WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SO
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THOSE TWO NIGHTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      76  49  57  39 /  70  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    75  45  54  37 /  60  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     73  47  57  35 /  80  40  20  30
COLUMBIA       75  50  59  38 /  70  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   76  50  60  37 /  70  20  20  20
WAVERLY        75  47  56  37 /  60  10  20  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
159 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

TNZ011-032>034-065-066-079-080-111030-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
159 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
WHILE STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE...THE MID STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S. THUS...THERE IS THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

TNZ005>010-022>031-056>064-075-077-078-093>095-111030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-BENTON-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-
CANNON-DEKALB-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
159 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE FOLLOWING WEATHER HAZARD(S) ARE IN EFFECT...

   WIND ADVISORY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
WHILE STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...MAINLY THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF
NASHVILLE...THE MID STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S. THUS...THERE IS THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

07