Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OH WESTWARD THROUGH THE
MO BOOTHEAL. OTHER THAN A LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER FAR EASTERN
KY...CONVECTION IS LIMITED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

GFS DATA SUGGESTS THAT TODAYS CAP WILL WEAKEN SOME AS WE MOVE INTO
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES OVER THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE JUST 30 POPS AS DYNAMICS ARE WEAK
AND THERE IS NOT MUCH ONGOING PRECIPITATION.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
OVER WESTERN TN AS THU 18Z RH PROGS POINT TO A MAXIMUM FOR THAT
AREA. WILL INCLUDE 50 POPS EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS WESTERN ZONES.
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THU NT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN.

FOR TEMPS...MAV CONTINUES TO BE TOO COOL ON LOWS...WILL TAKE THE
OVER FOR PDS 1 AND 3.

THE UPCOMING COOL DOWN WILL TAKE SOME TIME. 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL
BE CLOSE TO 16C FRIDAY...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXT FCST...COOLER DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRIER AIR ALLOWS FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL COOLING.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS BY TUES AND WED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      73  87  66  88 /  30  50  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    71  87  60  87 /  40  60  10   0
CROSSVILLE     66  83  60  81 /  30  50  20  10
COLUMBIA       73  88  67  88 /  30  50  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   73  89  67  88 /  30  60  10  10
WAVERLY        72  88  62  88 /  30  60  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
525 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
FEW STORM COMPLEXES MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

17/MAG