Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS WARM AND MUGGY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE 70S.

EARLY MORNING RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
SWUNG OUT FROM CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS, PUSHING INTO THE PADUCAH AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR MCS GENERATION IN THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SURGING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
STATE. BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS, AS COLD FRONT
WORKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY. SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL (ESPECIALLY OVER OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN AREAS, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT). WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN ZFP FORECAST FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BUT LEAVE IT OUT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR RIGHT NOW AND GIVE DAY SHIFT A
CHANCE TO LOOK AT THAT POSSIBILITY A LITTLE CLOSER.

WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT,
AS PWS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES.

BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT AND STICKY WEATHER, BEHIND THE FRONT,
WILL COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, IT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100 TODAY, AND MAY MENTION HEAT INDICES IN A
HEADLINE JUST TO KEEP EVERYONE AWARE OF HEAT-RELATED HEALTH ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...OUR SUMMER OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      97  71  86  67 /  30  60  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    94  69  86  63 /  30  80  30  10
CROSSVILLE     91  66  79  61 /  30  60  50  10
COLUMBIA       97  71  86  67 /  20  60  50  10
LAWRENCEBURG   98  72  86  67 /  20  50  60  10
WAVERLY        95  70  86  65 /  30  80  40  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
504 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S MOST PLACES, PUSHING
HEAT INDICES TO 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT, AND SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE
ONCE AGAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TNZ006-007-221645-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD
1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THROUGH 1045AM...DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS....LOOK FOR HIGH WINDS OF UP TO
45 MPH TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND ALSO
NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY. WINDS OF THIS SPEED COULD BLOW DOWN
SMALL TREES AND TREE LIMBS.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ORLINDA                 36.60N 86.67W
07/22/2008                   ROBERTSON          TN   OTHER FEDERAL

            TREE BLOWN DOWN IN FRONT OF MAYORS OFFICE

&&

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