Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
159 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CU FIELD MINIMAL ACROSS MID STATE AS WARM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE. TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S AT A FEW LOCATIONS AS OF 1 PM CDT
WITH PLATEAU IN MID TO UPPER 80S. CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ALONG PLATEAU SO CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT. A POTENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER WALKER
COUNTY GEORGIA AND HEADED NORTH ACROSS CHATTANOOGA DURING THE LAST
HOUR.

POTENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AT EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

MODELS BRING SURFACE LOW OUT OF MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND WORK
IT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE
DRAGGING A WEAKENING COOL FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT GIVE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP SO WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY IN MID STATE. STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT MAINLY EAST. DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA TO KEEP A POP RUNNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

AFTER TODAY TEMPS WILL BACK OFF FROM THE HEAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE ISSUED (UPDATED) PNS ABOUT
THE HOT START TO JUNE 2008. CHECK WEB SITE FOR DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  87  67  90 /  30  30  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    70  87  64  89 /  40  30  10  20
CROSSVILLE     66  82  63  85 /  30  30  10  20
COLUMBIA       71  87  66  89 /  30  30  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   70  87  67  89 /  30  30  10  20
WAVERLY        68  88  65  90 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
506 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
506 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN THE THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
COULD OCCUR. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

TNZ032-065-066-092145-
CUMBERLAND-PUTNAM-WHITE-
418 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CUMBERLAND...PUTNAM AND WHITE
COUNTIES...

AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF MONTEREY...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
CROSSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 13 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTEREY BY 445 PM CDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JLM