Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS ARRIVED...MOVING PAST KOLU AND KLCG THRU 08Z.
FRONT CONTINUES TO ROLL THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY TODAY...WITH
PLUNGING TEMPS BEHIND IT...AND NOT MUCH TIME FOR ADDITIONAL RISE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
REGARDING PRECIP TODAY...FEEL THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN CWFA...MOSTLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM KBVN TO KLCG...BASED ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAICS AND
WHERE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR. REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WILL MAINTAIN THIS GIVEN THAT ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR
WILL CREATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO...WIND CHILLS WILL BE APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...THUS
WILL LEAVE IT INTACT ATTM. COULD SEE A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO ELSEWHERE
TODAY...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IF AT ALL SOUTH
OF THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE. REGARDING WINDS... PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAD ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES AND SEE NO REASON TO BACK AWAY
FROM THIS ATTM. ANY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE WIND BLOWN WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALSO. NAM/SREF MODELS ARE NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS...AND RECENT POST FRONTAL SURFACE OBS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE TWO MODELS ARE TOO LOW FOR SPEEDS. GFS
MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS SPOT ON. ONLY CONCERN IS HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO
THE ADVISORY. INITIALLY THINKING THAT PREVIOUS EXPIRATION OF 9PM
WAS TOO LONG...AND BACKED THIS OFF TO 6 PM AS A COMPROMISE.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTH...AND
POSSIBLY A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD
BRUSH AREAS SOUTH OF I80. BUT AGAIN...OUR CWFA APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH REMOVED FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. IN BETWEEN...IT SHOULD BE DRY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN SHIFTS TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALREADY BE AT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY 00Z...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES...AND
ISSUE THE NEXT TIER SOUTH...WHICH WILL EXTEND DOWN TO I80...STARTING
AT 06Z. THOSE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE
THAT FINAL DETERMINATION. WILL RUN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH
NOON MONDAY...BUT AREAS ALONG I80 SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 15Z PERHAPS.

THIRD FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW...WHICH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. STRONG
WAA ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN AMPLE MOISTURE SOURCE SHOULD...WITH COLD
TEMPS SHOULD YIELD SNOWFALL RATIOS APPROACHING 15/17 TO 1. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY...AND HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TO A 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY THEN...THUS
JUST EXPECTING A DECENT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...EXACTLY WHERE WE HAVENT SEEN THE
SNOWFALL YET THIS YEAR. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT...AND SNOW SHOULD END
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND THEN...DIDNT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...BUT
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DECENT SHOT OF SNOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC SURGE REINFORCEMENT BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK THROUGH 15/12Z.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WL BE PRIMARY CONCERN THRU THE TAF PD AS
ARCTIC COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THRU TAF SITES. SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU MID AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH INITIAL COLD SURGE
BUT CIGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAINTAIN IFR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS LIKELY BY 15/00Z.
LIGHT SNOW COULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN BRIEFLY IN KOFK AND KOMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-089>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR NEZ015-032>034-042>045-050>053-065.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-
     012-016-017.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

&&

DEWALD/GRIFFIS

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