Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
233 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES WERE REBOUNDING QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS HELPING PUSH TEMPS
TO OR ABOVE 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE LACK OF SNOWCOVER HAS
ALLOWED SUCH A WARMUP. OUR NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS SEEN BLASTING
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GOOD 20
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE NEBRASKA BORDER TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN DRIVING COLD FRONT TO
INTERSTATE 80 BY 9 PM...THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN DROP QUICKLY BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS 1040MB HIGH DIVES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. AIRMASS
SOURCE REGION IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS WELL BELOW ZERO THIS
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS HERE TO FOLLOW SUIT. MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT HAD WELL BELOW ZERO NUMBERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE LINGERING SNOWCOVER RESIDES. WINDS
AND CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM COOL DOWN...BUT WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INHIBITION TO SUB ZERO TEMPS. AND WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPILL
SOUTH...DRIVING WIND CHILLS WELL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY FLIRT WITH 30 BELOW LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH NOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO MINIMAL MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT REBOUND MUCH IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HAVE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE NO SNOWCOVER
EXISTS.

WE SHOULD GET BACK INTO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST. WILL LIKELY SEE EVENING LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BEFORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THAT SAME WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MAY PAINT A STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE LATELY SO ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS. CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT PROMOTE MUCH MIXING
THURSDAY...SO STILL HAVE HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY IN THE 20S.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...BUT
AGAIN MODELS TRACK THIS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SMALL
POPS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY HIGH...HOWEVER BREAKING 30 WILL
BE TOUGH TO DO WITH 850 TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO AND LACK OF
STRONG FLOW TO MIX UP LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TREND OF LATEST EXTENDED MODELS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS SUCH STILL EXPECT TO SEE
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION WITH MAIN SYSTEM FOR
PRECIP AROUND MONDAY. GFS STILL TRENDS SURFACE LOW MORE TO THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS MORE NORTHERN TRACK. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK...THRU 20/18Z.

CIGS FL050-100 WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z ALL SITES AS STRONG SURFACE
HI PRESSURE FILTERS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI WILL RESULT IN NW WIND G25-35KT BTW
02Z-11Z BEHIND BNDRY. OTHERWISE...OTLK VFR THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     089>093.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE

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