Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
411 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA NOW WITH MORE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST FASTER THAN NEAR KS BORDER.
STRONG AND ISOLD SVR TSTMS LIKELY THE NEXT FEW HRS MAINLY IN SE
NEB AND SW IA UNTIL INSTABILITY DECREASES AFT 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH WHILE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATER TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE FAR SOUTH IN RETURN
FLOW ON WED. BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND FRONT JUMPS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INCREASED OVERNIGHT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THU MORNING...THEN RIDGING ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF WARM DRY WEATHER.  A
MINOR WAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD DRIVE A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY AT OUR LATITUDE AS RIDGE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG ALOFT.

WESTERLIES BUCKLE MORE STRONGLY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHARPENS A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE IN WESTERN NORTH AMER...AND A TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMER.
A STRONGLY DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC
OF TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS.
JUST HOW COOL IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THROUGH 24/18Z.

LINGERING MVFR COND/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED THRU ABOUT 00Z AT
KOMA/KLNK ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA THRU ERN NEB THIS AFTN. AFT
00Z...OUTLOOK IS VFR ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DEE/POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-232300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM THURSTON TO DAVID CITY TO FAIRBURY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...
AND THEN INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL IOWA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

DEE

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