Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
407 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ESE THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB IS BEGINNING TO
MAKE CONTACT WITH SFC BASED AIR AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
IMMEDIATE AREA HAS ONLY TCU SO FAR...BUT COULD DVLP TOWARD EVE...OR
TSTMS COULD MOVE IN FROM WNW. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...WITH FRONT WELL TO THE N...AND BEST LLJ
PROGGED TO DVLP CENTRAL NEB ONLY OF MDT INTENSITY.

RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...EXPECT WED THROUGH EARLY THUR AFTN TO
BE DRY WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR SD BORDER...AS WARM DRY CAP
ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD BRING A HOT DAY WED WITH AFTN CU
HOLDING BACK TEMPS A COUPLE DEG.

BEST CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS WILL BE THU EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES
WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOIST...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG BY
LATE THU AFTN ONCE THE CAP BREAKS. EXPECT TSTMS TO DRIVE SE THU
NIGHT WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT FRI LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE
LIKELY IN THE SE BY SAT MORN.  HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH BEST
CHC THU NIGHT WITH GOOD LLJ INTO AREA.

EXPECT SOME SORT OF A BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING PROVIDES SOME SUPPRESSION...BUT TOUGH TO BE SURE AS
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE AREA.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...OP MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT BY
DAYS 6 AND 7. GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED
LOW INTO THE N CENTRAL STATES...WHILE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE AND MOVES
IT EAST. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE WILL BE IN WEAKER NW FLOW
WITH RIDGE RUNNERS PROVIDING SOME CHC OF EVE AND OVERNIGHT TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE WARM TO HOT. FRIDAY COULD END UP THE
COOLEST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS ANY DAY
WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF BOUNDARIES.

GFS ENSEMBLES GIVE A PRELIMINARY SIGNAL THAT STRONG UPPER RIDGE
SETS UP OVER THE AREA ARND JULY 25 AND STICKS AROUND...SO THIS MAY
BE A PRELUDE TO A STRONG SUMMER HEAT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 16/18Z

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KOFK MAY SEE SOME TRW AFTER 00Z AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE AREA BUT NO MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

POLLACK/FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-161330-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM SEWARD TO OAKLAND IOWA...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN WESTERN IOWA.

NEZ088>093-161330-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY

ZAPOTOCNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
532 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     HERMAN                  41.67N 96.22W
07/15/2008  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CZAPOTOC

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