Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
422 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WEATHER GENERATED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY FROM SE SD AND NE TO SW NEB...WITH A TAIL ALONG THE NRN
NEB BORDER INTO SE WY. TSTMS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCT IN THIS REGION...
WITH AN AREA OF SHWRS NOW MOVING ACROSS NE NEB.  WNW FLOW AND 7H
LEVEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS NE NEB INTO W
CENTRAL IA WITH SLOW SOUTH MOVEMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE.  EXPECT SHOWERS
TO FADE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT AREA IS LIKELY TO BECOME ACTIVE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BEGINNING
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION. COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO CONTIRIBUTE. CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO SUPPRESS HEATING A BIT... SO LOWERED MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DEFINING THE MOIST
AREA...AND TEND TO UNDERPLAY MOISTURE IN SW NEB AND ALSO WY THAT
HAVE GENERATED PCPN OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD GFS BUT WITH BROADER
COVERAGE EXPECTED. POPS WERE RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AND
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MAIN MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED E OF THE
AREA BY THUR MRNG.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT PRECIP FOR NORTHEAST NEB. AM DUBIOUS OF
THIS FEATURE AS MODELS SHOW GENERAL LOWERING OF PW AS FIRST WAVE
MOVES PAST. WHILE THERE IS A WAVE VISIBLE UPSTREAM OVER
YELLOWSTONE AREA ON WV IMAGERY...THIS IS MORE LIKELY HEADED ACROSS
SD...AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THIS LEAVES
DRY AND HOTTER WEATHER INTO FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS FRI MAY BE THE
HOTTEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COMBO OF DEEP MIXING AND COLD FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG TSTMS NEAR FRONTALY BOUNDARY BY MID
TO LATE AFTN...WHEN SPREADING SLOWLY S. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY LINGER FOR A
WHILE LONGER IN FAR SRN NEB.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH DAYS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
AND COOLER NIGHTS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.  ELIMINATED MOST POPS AND
DRIED DEW POINTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.  FOLLOWED FSD IN THIS REGARD.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STRONGER PUSH OF SFC HIGH BOTH ON BOTH 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 10/12Z.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TMRW.  AT KOFK...HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 08-12Z AND A PROB30 GROUP FROM 19-24Z FOR
-TSRA.  AT KLNK...HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA LATER THIS AFT FROM
21-24Z.  AT KOMA...ALSO HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA THIS AFT FROM
18-24Z.  BOTH KLNK AND KOMA ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 10-14Z FOR TAF SITES KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THRU 10/12Z.

REESE

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

POLLACK/REESE

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