Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A FEW UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FM ERN CO THRU NWRN KS AND INTO EASTERN NEB/SWRN IA.
CERTAINLY NO LACK OF MOISTURE AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED IN THE
MID 70S ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN NEB/WRN IA. MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT NERN NEB IN
THE NEXT HOUR ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF WEAKENING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. WL HAVE A MENTION
OF POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TODAY. ALREADY HAVE QUITE A WARM START WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. ANVIL BLOW OFF
SHOULD SCATTER OUT SKIES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SO
LOWER 90S LIKELY MOST AREAS WITH PLACES SOUTH OF I-80 POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID 90S. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TRICKY.
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ADD TO
UNCERTAINTY. NAM DEVELOPS TSTMS ALONG THE WMFNT BY 21Z WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS SOMEWHAT OF A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE AND KEEPS THE AREA
DRY. WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND NEAR THE
WMFNT. MCS COULD EVOLVE OUT OF THIS AND ROLL EAST INTO THE
NIGHT AS 50KT NOCTURNAL LLVL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION.

BY 06Z/FRI...SFC CDFNT WL BE MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
NERN NEB. SOME EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND COULD CONTINUE TO ROLL INTO NRN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING BULK
SHEAR VALUES...ACTIVE LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY AND INACTIVE AS CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND AREA IN COOLER NWRLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THROUGH 27/12Z.

AM EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP FROM 09Z-12Z YET THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY PROBLEM. FEEL THAT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE KOFK SITE THIS MORNING...
AND PINNING DOWN AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE DEPENDENT ON IF/WHERE
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. CURRENT SET OF TAFS HAVE LEFT OUT
MENTION OF TSRA FOR THIS REASON...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO INSERT SOME
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...PERHAPS AROUND 20Z-00Z
AT KOFK...AND POSSIBLY 22Z-04Z AT KLNK AND KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

GRIFFIS/DEWALD

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