Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AS NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER.
SFC PATTERN COMPLEX WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...HOWEVER WMFNT DOES
APPEAR DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NERN KS. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV WL COMPLICATE FORECAST OVR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
EWD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING AND
VEERING LLVL JET. STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS WHERE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ONGOING. HAIL/WIND TREAT POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA IS IN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE SO BESIDES A HAIL/WIND THREAT...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO QUITE LIKELY. FAIRBURY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED JUST SHY OF
AN INCH BY 2 AM WHERE PWS ARE NEAR 1.50.

SFC WMFNT WL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NRN KS AND NRN MO THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY AND WL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
CONVECTION WL COMPLETLY DIMINISH ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA TODAY DUE
TO RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL MCV. SWRLY LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SERVE AS ONE OF THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISMS ACROSS SERN NEB/SWRN IA FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT
MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. CONVECTION FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WED EVENING.
NOCTURNAL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

LEFT REMAINDER OF FORECAST MOSTLY AS IS WITH STRONGER CDFNT
MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THROUGH 25/12Z.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN
JUST MENTIONED SHOWERS WITH A CB CLOUD GROUP THROUGH ABOUT 17Z AS
CONVECTION LIKELY GOES THROUGH A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. MORE STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING COVERAGE AND TIMING...ONLY MENTIONED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW FROM ABOUT 21Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR
CIGS DURING HEAVIEST INTENSITY OF DOWNPOURS THIS MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

GRIFFIS/DEWALD

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