Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
409 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES AND
FAIRLY SUBTLE WAVES IN NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AT LEAST. QPFPFD SYNOPSIS FOR DAY 1 COVERS THE SITUATION
WELL...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. HOWEVER...EMPHASIS FOR TIMING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NIGHT WITH SFC
HEATING THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR.  LOW LVL JET WILL NOT BE A BIG FACTOR.
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY A ROLE. WV IMAGERY AND 7H ANALYSIS BOTH SUGGEST A CONTINUED
STREAM OF SUBTROP MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE REGION FOR A WHILE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC FRONT MAY HELP ORGANIZE
TSTMS AS IT HEADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  HOWEVER...EXPECT A WAVE
NOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO BE AT LEAST AS IMPORTANT. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT TSTMS FROM WRN NEBRASKA TO CNTRL SD DESPITE THE TIME OF NIGHT.
IT WILL DRIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTN.

SAW LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTN AND NGT...BUT
NAM KEEPS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. GFS IN PARTICULAR IS
STRONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT NAM ALSO SHOWS SOME
RETURN DURING THE EVE.  STILL WORTH CHC CATEGORY POPS.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED BACK INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE MAY BEGIN
RETURNING MON NIGHT...AND IS LIKELY ON TUE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
PREV FORECAST HERE.

TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME SKY COVER...AND SHOULD RUN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.  AGAIN...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THROUGH 21/06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS PRESENT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z AND SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER FOR THIS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

BG
&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

POLLACK/GRIFFIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-210645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1133 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM AROUND
BROWNVILLE TO RULO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH MORE SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

69

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