Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

LINE OF STRONG TSTMS SW THRU NE NEBRASKA INTO NW IA IS
INTERCEPTING BEST MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AS LINE MOVES SE THIS EVE AND TNGT. HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER LINE WILL DEVELOP IN NW KS AND PROPOGATE NE
AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. 19Z OMA SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AT
800MB...WITH CAPE AROUND 1100. MOISTURE IS MODEST AND SO IS WIND
SHEAR. HAIL AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED TSTMS MOST LIKELY. FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

TSTMS SHOULD SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA OR NEARLY
SO BY MORNING. WED WILL BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY STRONG SO TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP COMES WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS LATE THU
AND THU NGT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE FOR MODEST
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NGT TO SATURDAY NGT. KEPT POPS A
LITTLE HIGHER FOR THIS SYSTEM.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OF A COUPLE DAYS OR SO BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
FLATTENING FOR A LITTLE WHILE.  MODELS ARE HAVING SEVERE DIFFICULTY
HANDLING THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS BY THEN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW. HPC EVOLUTION OF FRONTS WAS AN ACCEPTABLE FIRST GUESS...
AND DID NOT DEVIATE GREATLY FROM THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK FOR FORECAST VALID THRU 07/12Z.

EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM SW TO NE NEBRASKA TO ADVANCE SWD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GREATEST INTENSITY THROUGH 03Z.  STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VSBYS. BEST CHC OF TSTMS AT OFK BEFORE 03Z.  OMA AND LNK HAVE BEST
CHC FROM ABOUT 01Z-08Z BARRING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN LINE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HRS OF MVFR STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE TSTMS...BUT
DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN CLEAN OUT LOW CLDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

POLLACK/FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-
071230-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-
PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-
DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A SUPPLY
OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE LATE EVENING...AND MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ANOTHER CHANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
STRONGEST OF THESE...AND COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ066>068-078-088>093-071230-
MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
527 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE A SUPPLY OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR...BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MODERATE...AND INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER DARK. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT... ANOTHER
CHANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
STRONGEST OF THESE...AND COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

POLLACK

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