Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONVERGING TOWARDS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z. THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
KICKING THINGS OFF IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST THINKING IS FOR
CURRENT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING ALONG MID LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. AFTER THAT...NOT SURE
HOW THINGS WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH EXPECTATION OF WAVE MAINTAINING SOME
CONVECTION OR REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
GOING FOR THE EVENING WITH MAIN FOCUS IN THE SOUTH THEN FOLLOW BOTH
MODELS TREND OF MOVING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND WITH LITTLE
TO FOCUS ON WILL KEEP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW.

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY THEN REBUILDS OVER THE WEST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK...THROUGH 20/12Z.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND MAY AFFECT KOFK BY 15Z. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS ACTIVITY RE-INTENSIFIES ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME
BETWEEN 15Z AND 03Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE KOMA AND
KLNK AREAS. OUTSIDE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

FOBERT/DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-192300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
FROM AROUND BROWNVILLE TO RULO. FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

MILLER