Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
400 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF EVE INSTABILITY SHOWERS NORTH...
TONIGHT AND TUE SHOULD BE A WELCOME DRY WEATHER BREAK.

THERE IS SOME CHC OF ELEVATED TSTMS TUE NIGHT AS NEXT WAVE BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN U.S. AND INDUCES A STRONG SFC LOW IN
WRN NEB.  THE MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET BECOMES SO STRONG THAT TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WED AND WED NIGHT AS FRONT REACHES THE
AREA AND CLOSED LOW ALOFT REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING...AND ALSO WITH EXACT POSITION OF BOUNDARY.
THEY TEND TO SHOW SOLUTIONS WITH AN INITIAL SURGE WED...STALLING
WITH BEST CHC OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WED NIGHT.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY SURGE THU AND MORE CONVECTION
THU NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE SE COUNTIES.

ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP WILL PROBABLY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF NEXT SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE SOME CHC FOR
RETURNING MOISTURE AND TSTMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  THE GOOD NEWS
FOR OUR AREA IS THAT MODELS AGREE ON BREAKING DOWN RIDGE ALOFT OVER
THE SE U.S. AND BUILDING A RIDGE IN THE SW. THIS WILL TEND TO PUT
US IN WEST OR NW FLOW ALOFT AND LIMIT THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR
ANY WAVES.

TEMPS WILL START COOL...WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT LIKELY
INTO THE 90S. TEMPS MOST UNCERTAIN WED AND THU AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON DETAILS OF BOUNDARY LOCATIONS.  TEMPS WILL COLL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN LIKELY RECOVER BY SUN OR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT KOFK IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME AS
POOL OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BRUSH NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AFTER 12Z AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/POLLACK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-100645-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1134 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS FROM RECENT
HEAVY RAINS. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS REGARDING FLOODING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. THESE
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE
DETAIL WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AREAL LOCATIONS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING TO THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOBERT