River Flood Warning 71, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
433 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

AFD SHORT DUE TO ANTICIPATED WX. SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING THE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM. AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON SETTING SITUATION FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING.SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER ERN SD INTO ERN
NEB WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CWA. MESO
ANALYSIS SHOWING NIL CAPPING WITH AXIS OF SBCAPE AOA 3000J/KG THRU
THE CWA...WITH GREATEST O-1KM SHEAR IN WESTERN IA BEHIND SURFACE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN SD INTO MN. LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE BNDRY IS
ALREADY CROSSING NE NEB INTO WRN IA WITH CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LINE. EXCEPT FOR NE NEB...SPC TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER THE CWA
THRU 10 PM. SUSPECT THAT TORNADIC THREAT NORTH WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO CENTRAL IA BY 00Z. GIVEN BNDRY MOVEMENT...FEEL THEN
THAT TOR THREAT FOR THE CWA WILL MAINLY BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z-03Z IN AREA OF FAVORED MLCAPE/ESRH/MLLCL.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THEN IN THE LATE EVENING. AS FOR
FLOODING...A WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA THRU EARLY THURSDAY. SATL WINDS/IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY BTW 775MB-600MB LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS THRU WESTERN NEB AND INTO NE CO. THIS MAY BE FOCUS
FOR SECOND ROUND OF DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MAY CATAPULT
12HR QPF TOTALS BY THURSDAY MORNING AOA 3 INCHES MAINLY SE NEB
AND SW IA.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS...SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING HEADING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. FAVORED ECM SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER...THEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS FILTERING IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NW ON
MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES RIDING UP AND OVER INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEARTLAND
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...BEST THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WELL WEST OF THE CWA. THE
ECM SUGGESTING SURFACE HIGH WILL ACT AS A BUFFER WITH BEST
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LLVL MOIST ADVECTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK THROUGH 12/18Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CDFNT MOVES THRU THE AREA AND TSTMS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS IN
+TSRA. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. KOFK AROUND
00Z, KOMA AND KLNK AROUND 03Z. STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015-032>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

DEE/BG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
529 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ015-032>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093-120300-
BURT-BUTLER-CASS-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-
HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-MILLS IA-MONONA IA-
MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-
WASHINGTON-
529 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ALSO...THERE IS
A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THIS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES ON SEVERAL
RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING. ALSO...ANY
FLASH FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NEZ011-012-016>018-030-031-120300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-CEDAR-KNOX-MADISON-PIERCE-WAYNE-
529 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
847 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE PLYMOUTH           40.28N 96.96W
06/11/2008                   JEFFERSON          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
901 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TORNADO          3 NW DEFIANCE           41.86N 95.38W
06/11/2008                   SHELBY             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
903 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/11/2008  E8.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 TO 8 INCHES AT 168 AND NORTH AMES AVE.

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
951 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             PAPILLION               41.16N 96.04W
06/11/2008  E1.00 INCH       SARPY              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1002 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PAPILLION           41.20N 96.04W
06/11/2008                   DOUGLAS            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE DOWN AT GILES AND ELLSWORTH.

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1007 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/11/2008  M2.15 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FELL BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM AT 35TH AND CHARLES.

&&

LANDSVORK