River Flood Warning 53, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST
EAST OF KMCK AT 18Z WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA. INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AND MOVED NORTH OUT OF THE AREA.
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG SEMI-DRY LINE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH. HIGH POPS IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT WITH
HEADLINES FOR SEVERE OR FLOOD POTENTIAL. STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST
HIGH POSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH FAST MOVEMENT NORTH. MAIN ACTION EXPECTED TO END AFTER 06Z AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY FROM WEATHER
BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS INTO
SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI.

EXTENDED FORECAST LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE TODAY WITH TREND TOWARD
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK THRU 06/1800Z.

MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z AT EACH TAF SITE
AS UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
A WESTERLY DIRECATION AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-033-034-
     043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

FOBERT/DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
410 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL
BE MOVING VERY FAST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 60 MPH.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
EXTREME SHEAR VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UNUSALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL HAVE A FAST
STORM MOVEMENT...BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING FLOODING AND SATURATED
SOILS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO INDIVIDUAL RIVER AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
SPECIFIC FLOODING DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
753 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     17 W CREIGHTON          42.46N 98.24W
06/05/2008  E70 MPH          KNOX               NE   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF HOUSE

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
800 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MISSOURI VALLEY         41.56N 95.90W
06/05/2008                   HARRISON           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES, POWER LINES DOWN

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
809 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TORNADO          5 W NEBRASKA CITY       40.68N 95.96W
06/05/2008                   OTOE               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT NORTH OF I-29 MILE
            MARKER 10 AND IOWA 2

&&

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
815 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE FALLS CITY        40.12N 95.57W
06/05/2008                   RICHARDSON         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE REPORTED TO CHURCH AND HOUSE

&&

KURTZ

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