Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 192024
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
223 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

MTC047-063-089-192045-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-080819T2045Z/
MISSOULA MT-LAKE MT-SANDERS MT-
223 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDERS...SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND NORTHERN MISSOULA
COUNTIES...

* AT 220 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF CONDON...OR ABOUT 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POLSON...AND
  WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 54 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CONDON AROUND 230 PM MDT...AND SALMON PRAIRIE AROUND 235 PM MDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4705 11399 4718 11428 4788 11371 4786 11366
      4779 11368 4776 11365 4773 11367 4770 11360
      4760 11364 4760 11347 4752 11347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 213DEG 47KT 4742 11381

$$

FOSTER

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 192043
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

MTC047-063-089-192053-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-080819T2045Z/
MISSOULA MT-LAKE MT-SANDERS MT-
243 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDERS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE AND NORTHERN MISSOULA COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 245 PM
MDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4705 11399 4718 11428 4788 11371 4786 11366
      4779 11368 4776 11365 4773 11367 4770 11360
      4760 11364 4760 11347 4752 11347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 213DEG 47KT 5862 8134

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
931 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

.UPDATE...ADJUSTED POP/QPF/SKY/WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA. INCREASED POPS AND QPF DUE TO REPORTS OF PRECIP AND ADDED
AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALREADY
BEGINNING TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS...AS WELL AS WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
SULA AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. BUT AT THIS
TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND IS EXPECTED TO DO
SO THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE CELLS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 40 MPH. EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY ALL TERMINAL SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BECOMING
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL LOWERED VISIBILITY IN STRONGER
PRECIPITATION CORES. SMOKE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE MISSOULA AND
KALISPELL VALLEYS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MOVED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST BRINGING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THIS AFTERNOONS HEATING CREATES A MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING MORE STABLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAYS EVENT.

A SEASONALLY COLD AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ON TO THE PACIFIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...IT
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO
RISE MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES. ALONG WITH THE FRONT...GOOD UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS
SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO. WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING THURSDAY TO BETWEEN 8500 AND 9000
FEET...SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GLACIER PARK.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE CELLS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 40 MPH. EXPECT TO SEE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY ALL TERMINAL SITES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BECOMING
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL LOWERED VISIBILITY IN STRONGER
PRECIPITATION CORES.

FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS FROM A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEAVER HEAD/DEERLODGE AREA WILL ALSO SEE FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER MORE.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DEERLODGE/WEST
     BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR BITTERROOT-EAST
     LOLO-FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK-KOOTENAI-SALISH AND KOOTENAI
     RESERVATION-WEST LOLO.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CLEARWATER/NEZ
     PERCE-PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOEFFELBEIN/ALLEGRETTO/DICKERSON
LONG TERM....VIA
AVIATION...VIA/ALLEGRETTO/DICKERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
540 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

MTZ002-200000-
WEST GLACIER REGION-
540 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST GLACIER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE
IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GLACIER PARK REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. CURRENT SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO MID 90S SHOULD BE REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BY CLOSE TO 30 OR EVEN 40
DEGREES BY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW
LEVELS POSSIBLY FALLING AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO RECREATE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER TYPE CONDITIONS AND THIS
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

IDZ005-006-200000-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
440 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON AND
THE CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE AREAS. FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRAMATIC
COOLING ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIFFERENCE WHEN COMPARED
TO MONDAY AND MAY SUPPORT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ005>007-043-200000-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
540 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MONTANA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DRAMATIC 30 TO 40 DEGREES OF COOLING WHEN COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

IDZ009-010-200000-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
540 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LEMHI COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DRAMATIC 30 TO 40 DEGREES OF COOLING WHEN COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ001-003-004-200000-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
540 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DRAMATIC 30 TO 40 DEGREES OF COOLING WHEN COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

IDZ007-008-200000-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
440 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON AND
THE CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE AREAS. FOR CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A DRAMATIC 30 TO 40 DEGREES OF COOLING WHEN COMPARED TO
MONDAY...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.