Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 012044
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
244 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

MTZ110-111-020300-
/O.CON.KMSO.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080802T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
244 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DEERLODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD (ZONES 110 AND 111)...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
DEERLODGE AND BEAVERHEAD NATIONAL FORESTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KMSO 020254
RFWMSO

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
854 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

MTZ110-111-020400-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080802T0300Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD-
854 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE DEER LODGE/WEST
BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. GUSTY WINDS TO 20 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 10
MPH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DECREASING SUNLIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE HUMIDITY VALUES SUFFICIENTLY THAT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER PRUDENT.

$$

DICKERSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
340 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING SPREADING CLOUDS INTO NORTHWEST
MONTANA AS WELL AS OFFERING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO PROVIDE GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA
AND LEMHI COUNTY AS WINDS ALOFT COMBINE FORCES WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. WINDS
WILL PICKUP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN...
AND ARE AIDED BY A SUPPORTIVE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO BY MONDAY. MOST OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND EASTWARD IN MONTANA. THIS UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
ARE COMING A BIT BETTER IN LINE WITH THE TRANSITIONAL TIMING OF
THE RIDGE AND STRENGTH OF IT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECTING A
PRETTY GOOD WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND SIMILAR DAY TO DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND  BRING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THEIR POTENTIAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND PUSHING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TODAY.
ALL AIRFIELDS IN THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE THESE WINDS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BEAVERHEAD AND DEERLODGE
NATIONAL FORESTS. WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND NW MONTANA
WILL ENJOY ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE WINDS...SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES AT THE SAME TIME WINDS PICKUP. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-EAST BEAVERHEAD.

ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....FOSTER
AVIATION...FOSTER