Wind Advisory 17, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION SHOW SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED...WITH VAD
WIND PROFILES (VWP) FROM AREA RADARS SHOWING WIND DIRECTIONS TURNING
SOUTHERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. KHTX AND KJKL VWPS SHOW SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW OR N. THUS...THINK THAT MOUNTAIN WAVE
CONDITIONS HAVE LESSENED ENOUGH TO DROP WIND ADVISORY FOR BULK OF
THE AREA...AND ALSO TO DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA TO A
WIND ADVISORY (HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MONROE CO NE TO GREENE CO).

PRECIPITATION THUS FAR HAS MAINLY BEEN AROUND 1/10 INCH TO LESS THAN
1/2 INCH...AS DOWNSLOPING HAS BEEN A FACTOR FROM CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTHWARD. AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
DOES CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ENE...SO MANY AREAS WILL AT LEAST GET
SOME MEASURABLE RAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED POP GRIDS UP
A BIT EARLY TONIGHT IN LINE WITH LATEST MOS POPS AND TO BETTER MESH
WITH GRIDS FROM EASTERN NEIGHBORS. CLOUDS AND WINDS EARLY TONIGHT
SEEMED TO FAVOR MILDER MINS WHERE SLIGHT MOS DIFFS WERE NOTED.

FOR SATURDAY...LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER NE TN AND SWRN VA...WHERE
VERY LOW POPS WERE CARRIED JUST IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDS
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME
CLEARING SUPPORTED GENERALLY A BLEND OF MOS FOR MAX TEMPS. DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS VERY NEAR OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF GENERALLY ACCEPTED
WHICH INDICATES UPPER TROF DEEPING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST IN CLIPPER
LIKE FASHION THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLENTY OF VORTICITY AND UPSLOPE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A BIT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR SPRINKLES AND
MAYBE EVEN A SNOWFLAKE AT THE TOP OF THE SMOKIES. ANOTHER VORT RIPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE ONSLAUGHT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM
SOUTHWARD IN AN EFFORT TO BALANCE THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE EARTHS
INCLINATION TO THE SUN CHANGES TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY LIMITED
INSOLATION. MOISTURE LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND SO USED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. FOLLOWING THE COLD UPPER TROF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS THE MEAN FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE TO VERY SLOWLY RECOVER TO
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN            46  65  41  71  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45  62  40  69  42 /  70   0  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                      44  63  40  69  42 /  70   0  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN             46  62  36  65  40 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST
     MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

TG