Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...MAIN SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE OVER THE
MID-WEST. ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE TENNESSEE-KENTUCKY STATE-
LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE. MODELS SHOW A DIVERGENCE MAX AT 300MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BNA TO
AROUND LNP. AS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED. LAPS SHOWS CAPES BETWEEN 1400-1800 J/KG ACROSS THE
VALLEY WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS FRONT PULLS SOUTH OF THE AREA...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS SHOWING A LONG
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ON THURSDAY
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT ONE ON SATURDAY THEN CLEARING OUT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR A LITTLE LIMITED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WTIH GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER.

MODEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE WITH A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  56  77  52  78  59 /  20  10  10  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  74  49  75  55 /  20  10  10  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN  52  75  49  74  54 /  20  10  10  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  50  69  43  71  49 /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     EAST POLK...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
     HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
     MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...
     NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
     NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...
     SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WISE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON.

&&

DH/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

UPDATED FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-210845-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1020 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008 /920 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AIRMASS WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 2500 FEET...AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TNZ042>047-201945-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON-
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARTER...GREENE...UNICOI AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CARTER...GREENE...UNICOI AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TNZ082>084-202000-
BLEDSOE-HAMILTON-MEIGS-RHEA-
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BLEDSOE...MEIGS AND
RHEA COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES NORTH OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING
EAST AROUND 35 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN BLEDSOE...MEIGS AND RHEA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TNZ040-041-070-073-074-202000-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JEFFERSON-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING COCKE...JEFFERSON AND
SEVIER COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARROTTSVILLE. THIS STORM WAS EAST AT 40
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

TNZ072-074-202015-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING BLOUNT AND SEVIER
COUNTIES...

AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FONTANA VILLAGE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

DH

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