Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO EAST.  LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH IS LIMITING
THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT.  VWP WINDS AT KMRX
STILL SHOWING 50KT READINGS AT 5000 FT...AND 70KT AT 10000 FT.
THESE VALUES HAVE HELD ALL DAY.  WINDS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS STILL
BLOWING HARD...THINKING BEST CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN/NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHERE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OCCURS...UNTIL SURFACE
REHEATING CAN START.

CLEARING AHEAD OF FRONT ALLOWING A LITTLE HEATING TO OCCUR...AND
CELLS IN MIDDLE TN STARTING TO BLOSSOM...SEE SPC MD.  HELICITY AND
SHEAR VALUES STILL VERY STRONG.  ROTATING UPDRAFTS A POSSIBILITY OR
NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE WARMING STARTS...BUT SHOULDNT GO TOO DEEP IN
THE NIGHT AS COOLING STABILIZES LOWER AIRMASS AGAIN.

FRONT NOT MOVING TOO FAST...SO WILL LINGER PRECIP INTO TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.  THEN SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ONCE THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM PASSES TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT, THOUGH NOT MUCH COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FLAT SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDENT DRY
AIR. A MUCH MODIFIED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BUT
AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM SO WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
A FEW DEGREES. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS UPPER SHORT WAVE CLIPS THAT AREA. HAVE LEFT IN
A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AREAS.

AS SHORT RIDGE EXITS AREA, SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT SHORT WAVE WHICH, AS OF NOW, LOOKS SLIGHTLY POTENT. SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHEAST U.S. DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROF INTO OUR AREA AND THIS,
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MAY
TURN IT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE,
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ONLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIDGINESS OCCURS AFTER THIS, THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  41  62  36  69  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  58  35  65  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  40  58  34  66  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  42  54  30  63  39 /  40   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...
     CLAIBORNE...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
     HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
     MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...
     NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
     NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST
     POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

GM/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-200900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
320 PM EDT (220 PM CDT) WED MAR 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE MEMNPWMRX FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULL SOME OF
THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
618 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUDON                  35.74N 84.36W
03/19/2008                   LOUDON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
622 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOXVILLE               35.97N 83.95W
03/19/2008                   KNOX               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
626 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARYVILLE               35.75N 83.97W
03/19/2008                   BLOUNT             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

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