Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND OZARKS REGION...WITH A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN MCS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND INTO SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN ON THURSDAY MORNING. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
MCS...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SHORT
WAVE MAY GIVE THE FRONT ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO BELIEVE THIS SOLUTION.
THUS...WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH MINS A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT (COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT) AND MAXES A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STAYED WITH
THE ECMWF FOR LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH FEATURES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO HIGH
INSOLATION AND ADIABATIC WARMING. DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
SUGGESTED MOS TEMPS INSTEAD FAVORING NUMBERS 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TROF DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY BE ABLE TO FLATTEN
RIDGE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
CONVECTION ON THESE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  73  88  72  92  71 /  40  70  40   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  88  69  92  70 /  40  70  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN  72  88  69  92  70 /  50  70  40   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  70  84  65  90  66 /  50  70  40   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-310745-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2008 /245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER, ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY
REACH STRONG LEVELS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS STRONGER THAN 50 MPH. EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAIN COULD OCCUR WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBANIZED AREAS AND THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE LOW SPOTS. NEVER
DRIVE THROUGH WATER RUNNING ACROSS ROADS. LAST, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. REMEMBER, IF YOU HEAR THUNDER,
LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO STRIKE YOU.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

BB

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