Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
959 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OFF TO AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL AND WRN KY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SE FROM SRN ILLINOIS...PLUS LIKELY SURFACE
OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE THE REASONS FOR THIS EARLY CONVECTION.
DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. PREVIOUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWO) SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK SUFFICIENTLY FOR NOW.

MODIFIED 12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IF MAX
TEMPS REACH 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH POSITIVE CAPES OF 1600 TO 2800
J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND
ALSO K INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH FOR HAIL...BUT STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.

LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO
INCREASE POPS SOONER FOR NE PLATEAU COUNTIES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. WILL LOOK INTO THIS AND MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
GRIDS SHORTLY. UPDATED ZFPMRX AND WEB PRODUCTS BY AROUND 11 AM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  91  72  85  69  91 /  50  60  70  40  30
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    89  71  84  67  89 /  60  60  60  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN            89  70  84  66  89 /  70  60  60  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   85  65  85  62  88 /  60  60  40  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
534 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
534 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 /434 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER.

TD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE JONESVILLE        36.62N 83.08W
07/09/2008                   LEE                VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN ALONG ROUTE 70.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
143 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GATE CITY               36.64N 82.58W
07/09/2008                   SCOTT              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

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