Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INSTABILITY EVIDENT ON THE
MSAS WITH LIS AROUND -7 TO -8. CONVECTION FIRING ON THE TERRAIN
WITH A NORTHWARD DRIFT WHICH TAKES SOME OF THE STORMS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. USED SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE COVERAGE POPS FOR
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP GOING FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE
EVENING AND THEN FADE AWAITING APPROACH OF MIDWEST COOL FRONT. FRONT
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AS UPPER SUPPORT RUNS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
FRONT TRIES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT WELL INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THUS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PULSE CONVECTIVE STORMS
MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL EACH DAY IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. USED SLIGHT AND
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
TRENDING TO HIGHER MEDIUM CHANCE PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST STAYED CLOSER TO A GUIDANCE BLEND DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY SAT EVENING. BEST PCPN CHCS ARE FRI AND SAT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. PCPN CHCS SLIDE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
WENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS UNTIL PATTERN DICTATES OTHERWISE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  72  89  69  89  70 /  20  50  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  89  68  88  67 /  20  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  71  89  68  88  68 /  20  50  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  66  87  65  87  64 /  20  50  40  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE EACH DAY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
214 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             CHATTANOOGA             35.07N 85.26W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL HAIL ON BROAD ST IN CHATTANOOGA. REPORTED BY
            SPOTTER.

&&

MEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             CHATTANOOGA             35.07N 85.26W
06/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE 911 CENTER ON AMNICOLA HWY.
            REPORTED BY DISPATCHER.

0225 PM     HAIL             CHATTANOOGA             35.07N 85.26W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           TN   PUBLIC

            PEA TO NICKEL HAIL AT CHICKAMAUGA DAM. REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC.

&&

MEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
426 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

TNZ039>043-070-073-092130-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
426 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING COCKE...GREENE...HAMBLEN...
JEFFERSON AND SEVIER COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HOT SPRINGS TO SEVIERVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 9 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

17

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