Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...WRF-NAM HAS GENERALLY HAD THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THUS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED EVENING LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP.  APPEARS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO WARRANT LOW POPS FOR
TOMORROW AS IT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER.  TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO BEFORE SUBSEQUENT WARMING TREND COMMENCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS/ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS
SUGGESTS A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EACH DAY.  HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WHICH
CAPTURES THIS SCENARIO WELL.  WENT WITH DRY FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION...AND EVEN THE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED UNDER THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  86  66  89  70 /  30  30  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  84  64  88  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  85  64  88  69 /  20  10  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  82  61  85  66 /  20  10  10  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-021000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008 /430 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROCHING THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIAN REGION WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE QUIET STRONG OR SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1152 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N JASPER              35.07N 85.63W
06/01/2008                   MARION             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND JASPER.

&&

FERRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1241 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

VAZ006-011700-
RUSSELL-
1241 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AFFECTING RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF RAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
424 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

TNZ012-013-012130-
CAMPBELL-SCOTT-
424 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTT AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM...

AT 422 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN SCOTT AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DMG