Winter Weather Advisory 15, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A NUMBER OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WHICH WAS HINTED AT IN MODEL
RUNS YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER JET TRENDS AND 200 MB.
THE 200 MB PATTERN WAS SUGGESTING A DECENT POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA
WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE COUPLET FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST SOME ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOW. THE TREND IS EVEN STRONGER WITH THE 00Z RUNS AND
THE WHOLE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS FARTHER NW.
700 MB LOW FORECAST OS VERY SIMILAR ON THEE GFS AND NAM TRACKING
FROM THE NORTHERN NEB AREA INTO NORTHERN IA AND BECOMING SHEARED
OUT SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY. UP TO 4 G/KG ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES
SUGGESTS NEAR 8 INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THICKNESS OVER
SOUTHERN MN. THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA ON THE SREF
IS NOT ESPECIALLY DEEP BUT A DECENT FRONTO AREA OVERLAYED WITH SIG
LAYER THETA E ADVECTION DOES SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. A FEW SPOTS COULD GET 10 INCHES. ONSET OF SNOW A
LITTLE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF APPROPRIATE HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. I COULD SEE A CHANGES
NEEDED AFTER THE BEST BAND OF SNOW SETS UP. THE SREF PROBS OF
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS PAINTED A TAD NORTH OF 06Z NAM OF
HIGHER QPF...MORE TOWARD MKT TO RGK. OTHERWISE WILL PAINT IN SOME
ADVISORIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE REST OF OF CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH.

ALSO A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LONGER TERM TRENDS ARE STILL ACTIVE WITH SYSTEMS
AFFECTING US EVERY FEW DAYS. ENSEMBLE TEMP UNCERTAINTY NOT AS
WILD AS LAST FEW RUNS THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAD MOVED EAST THIS EVENING...WHILE FOG AND
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES LINGERED OVER THE ROUTES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
BAND OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR LIFTS OVER
THE AREA.  CEILINGS WILL START OFF BETWEEN 25 HUNDRED TO 35 HUNDRED
FEET AGL...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO UNDER 1000 FEET AGL BY MID/LATE
MONDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-RICE-
     STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
     MEEKER-POPE-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-WRIGHT-YELLOW
     MEDICINE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-
     MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
     WASHINGTON.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

JPR/MTF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
953 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS.
AREAS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MONDAY
MORNING....AND THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW IS LIKELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ARE PRESENTLY EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND SNOWFALL OBSERVERS ARE URGED TO REPORT NEW SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.