Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 040413
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MNC037-049-WIC093-040423-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0273.000000T0000Z-080804T0415Z/
DAKOTA MN-GOODHUE MN-PIERCE WI-
1113 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN PIERCE...NORTHERN
GOODHUE AND SOUTHEASTERN DAKOTA COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1115 PM CDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY OR 
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS...CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND PEA SIZED 
HAIL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. REMAIN ALERT IN 
THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4447 9229 4441 9305 4451 9304 4454 9290
      4472 9297 4476 9286 4474 9281 4480 9278
      4486 9261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 250DEG 33KT 4470 9256

$$

KAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING.

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AT NOSE OF 850-600MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WRN
WI. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EASTWARD AT EDGE OF MID-LEVEL
CAP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND POSSIBILITY
INTO THE EVE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED
MUCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG. LARGE CAPE INDICATED ALSO IN THE MAIN
HAIL GROWTH REGION. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS
PRIMARY MODE AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA /VAD PROFILER/ AND MESOANALYSIS DATA. HAIL THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

CONCERN FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS GROWING IN SOUTH
CTRL MN...WITH INITIATION BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM APPEARING LIKELY.
1005MB SFC LOW HAS EVOLVED INTO FAR SE SD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTN...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS BEEN DIABATICALLY ENHANCED DUE TO CLOUD
COVER TO THE NORTH AND BAKING HEAT TO THE SOUTH. CUMULUS CLOUD
STREETS /POSSIBLY HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS/ HAVE SHOWN UP IN
ERN TO NERN IA AND ARE ADVECTING INTO SOUTH CTRL MN. STILL A GREAT
AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED AND MIXED-LAYER CIN IN THAT AREA AS
INDICATED BY DIAGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH THE BASIC H7 TEMPS
A WARM 15C. BUT...SHORTWAVE OR VORT MAXIMA EXTENSION FROM
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN CTRL MN IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE CHANNELS IN
SOUTH CTRL SD. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS INDICATED ON
THE RUC MODEL COMING ACROSS INTO ERN SD AND SOON INTO SRN MN.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS IS ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION IN SRN MN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR TRIGGERING SFC
BASED CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING REACHED...WITH ADAPTED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE 75-77F BALLPARK
INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO NEAR 90F NEEDED FROM FAIRMONT UP TO
MANKATO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SHEAR PREDICTED BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE BETWEEN
20-30 KTS...HELPED IN PART BY THE RE-INCREASING LLJ. BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN OUR SOUTH CTRL COUNTIES ALSO AIDING POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WOULD
BE SOON AFTER INITIATION. SIG TOR POTENTIAL SEEMS BRIEF BUT
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH LOCAL RESEARCH
REGRESSIONS FOR FAVORABLE SIG TOR PARAMETERS. DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
AND LARGE HAIL SEEM VERY LIKELY WITH CELLS DUE TO THE STRONG CAPE
AND DCAPE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH IN THAT AREA. MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS WOULD BE 5 PM TO 10 PM. HAVE
SVR MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THAT TIME.

AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND FOCUSES INTO SE MN AND WRN WI AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE THIS EVE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE...INCLUDING IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. THIS SHOULD BE
ELEVATED IN ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUING TO FEED THE CONVECTION. EVENTUAL ORGANIZATION SEEMS
LIKELY...GIVEN FAVORABLE MCS/DERECHO PARAMETERS...THAT WOULD
ESPECIALLY TAKE OFF OVER SE MN INTO SRN WI LATE THIS EVE INTO
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY
TAILORING BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH
EXTENDING NWRD FROM THE SFC LOW WORK EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ALONG WITH NO STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MN CWA AND POSSIBLY THE WI CWA BY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

FOR MON...EVERYTHING EVOLVES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL HELP TO AID
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE ON MON. THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TOO OUR SOUTH...HELPED IN PART BY THE
CONVECTION TONIGHT.

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO OOZE INTO THE REGION BY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. REALLY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT WEEK AFTER THAT POINT AS
ERN NA LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. POCKETS OF VORT
MAXIMA SEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS BUT THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CTRL GREAT LAKES
REGION MORE. HAVE BUMPED DOWN MIN TEMPS FOR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...CLOSER TO LOWER VALUES OF 00Z MEN GUIDANCE BASED ON
850MB TEMPS CREEPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO CTRL MN AND WRN
WI.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STILL A TRICKY SITUATION FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN SD WILL BE BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS
AT THOSE LEVELS. THIS MAY STILL WEAKEN THE CAP OVER S
MN...ALLOWING STRONG STORMS TO FORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL
NOT LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
COULD ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP OTHER STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE,...AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL MN MAY PERSIST NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY GO DOWN INTO IFR CEILINGS AND
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBYS IN TSTMS WILL BE BRIEFLY IFR AS WELL.
THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE HIGHER DEW POINT
AIRMASS AND CLOSE TO WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINS FELL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MTF/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
738 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
738 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             1 NNW CLEARWATER        45.42N 94.05W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 AM     HAIL             CLEARWATER              45.41N 94.04W
08/03/2008  M0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0145 PM     HAIL             7 NW CAMBRIDGE          45.64N 93.34W
08/03/2008  M0.75 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0149 PM     HAIL             4 N CAMBRIDGE           45.62N 93.24W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM     HAIL             PRINCETON               45.57N 93.59W
08/03/2008  M0.88 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0156 PM     HAIL             1 ENE GRANDY            45.64N 93.17W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE RUSH CITY          45.72N 92.91W
08/03/2008  M2.60 INCH       CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN 2.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2.5 HOURS

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUCK                    45.58N 92.47W
08/03/2008                   POLK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN AND
            NEAR THE CITY OF LUCK BETWEEN 250 PM AND 258 PM.

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NE BRAHAM               45.73N 93.17W
08/03/2008  M2.50 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN RESULTED IN RAIN TOTALS OF 2.5 INCHES IN 3
            HOURS

0324 PM     HAIL             RICHMOND                45.45N 94.52W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUMBERLAND              45.54N 92.02W
08/03/2008                   BARRON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES SNAPPED NEAR CUMBERLAND JUST NORTH OF HWY 48

0336 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S RICE LAKE           45.47N 91.74W
08/03/2008                   BARRON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF A ROOF BEING RIPPED OFF A HOUSE 2 MILES SOUTH
            OF RICE LAKE ALONG WITH MANY TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
            AREA...INCLUDING IN THE CUMBERLAND VICINITY.

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUCE                   45.46N 91.27W
08/03/2008                   RUSK               WI   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN IN THE CITY OF BRUCE

0427 PM     HAIL             W CAMBRIDGE             45.56N 93.23W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM     HAIL             1 SE CAMBRIDGE          45.55N 93.21W
08/03/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
459 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW RICE LAKE         45.54N 91.85W
08/03/2008                   BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PINE TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN NEAR RICE LAKE

&&

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1024 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     HAIL             3 NNW NORTHFIELD        44.49N 93.19W
08/03/2008  E0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AND HIGHWAY 19.

&&

LS