Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000
WWUS53 KMPX 101456
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
957 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNC041-101530-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080710T1530Z/
DOUGLAS MN-
957 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY...

AT 955 AM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF ALEXANDRIA...OR
ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 44 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE RICE LAKE...LEAF VALLEY...
HOLMES...BELLE RIVER...OSAKIS...NELSON...MILTONA...MILLERVILLE...
GARFIELD AND FORADA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4611 9517 4606 9515 4576 9514 4582 9564
      4584 9569 4592 9563 4606 9564 4612 9556
      4611 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 283DEG 38KT 4587 9541

$$

TRH

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 101513
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNC041-101522-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080710T1530Z/
DOUGLAS MN-
1012 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE STORM HAD WEAKENED OVER EASTERN 
DOUGLAS COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. THE STORM COULD STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 
MPH. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM. 

LAT...LON 4611 9517 4606 9515 4576 9514 4582 9564
      4584 9569 4592 9563 4606 9564 4612 9556
      4611 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 283DEG 38KT 4583 9519

$$

TRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN BREWING ALL NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ND.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MIGRATING ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND WEAKENING. THE
STORMS TO OUR NW ARE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AND AT THE NOSE OF
A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. ALOFT...A 90 KNOT WIND MAX IS SHOWN
BETWEEN LAKE WINNIPEG AND FAR NORTHERN MN WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION DIVERGENCE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. PWS ARE PROGGED TO DOUBLE
TODAY AND THE STABILITY OVER US NOW TURNS QUITE UNSTABLE BY 18Z.
850-300MB THICKNESS INDICATES THE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN ND WILL
BEGIN TO TURN SE THIS MORNING. HOPE HERE IS THAT A COLD POOL DOES
NOT GET ESTABLISHED AND A BOW TAKES OFF TO THE SE ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. NMMWRF COMP REF HAS A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND DOES SHOW STORMS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWA TODAY. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...
BEGINNING OVER THE NW CWA OUT THE GATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
TWIN CITIES AFTER 15Z. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRIMMED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG INTO SOUTHERN MN FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETURNING NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY PROGGED AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN LOOKS INTERESTING...ESPECIALLY
IF SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION TODAY IS SITTING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS SOME TONIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKING HOT AND HUMID WITH A LATE DAY COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS MN. CAP IS VERY STRONG EARLY ON AND IS FORECAST TO
BREAK IN THE 21Z TO 24Z TIME FRAME. INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL MN THEN
ALLOWED A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH LIKELY POPS
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND HIGH WINDS SEEN AS THE MAIN PROBLEMS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB THETA-E AROUND 360K WITH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TWIN CITIES FROM 300 TO 350 KTSG/KG.
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ALSO RUNNING IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME WIND
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO.

FINE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SQUARELY OVERHEAD
ON MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SIMILAR THOUGHTS FOR THIS TAF PKG AS WITH THE LAST ONE. PRETTY
POTENT VORT LOOKS TO MOVE EWRD THRU CNTRL MN AND INTO WRN WI ON
THU WITH WMFNT LIFTING NWRD THRU THE SAME RGN. ALL SITES EXCEPT
RWF STAND A GOOD CHC OF SEEING SOME SHWRS...ALTHO WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT THE HIGHEST ON COVG AM WITHHOLDING TSRA MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AXN/STC SHUD MAINLY SEE ACTIVITY DURG THE MRNG HRS /10-15Z/ WHILE
MSP/RNH/EAU WILL BE IN THE LATE MRNG TO AFTN HRS /14-20Z/. WINDS
SHUD LARGELY BE SRLY...BECMG SERLY AS THE WMFNT LIFTS NWRD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/KAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
805 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
805 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO PROBABLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND REACH EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH THE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
859 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNZ041-047-048-101500-
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEVENS-
859 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DOUGLAS...POPE AND STEVENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 856 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CYRUS. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CYRUS.
  FARWELL.
  STARBUCK.
  LONG BEACH.
  VILLARD.
  GROVE LAKE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.