Tropical Storm Warning 1007, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WEAK FRONT OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BOUNDED BY 1020 HIGH OVER EASTERN PLAINS INTO GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER OFF THE DELMARVA REGION BETWEEN NJ AND NC.
THIS WILL CAUSE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT RESUMING SUNDAY AS SEABREEZE GETS ONE LAST ATTEMPT TO
FORCE A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS
OF LOWER OR MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S. ACCORDING TO
NHC TRACK...WOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY WELL OUT
OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE COAST AS HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVES IN.

GENERALLY MODEL OUTPUTS ARE BUNDLING RESPECTIVE FORECAST TRACKS OF
GUSTAV FAIRLY CLOSELY. THAT MIDLEVEL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL WEAKEN AND THE 850-700 MB RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL
BUILD UP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE INTENSIFYING
HURRICANE GUSTAV ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK PER NHC MAKING LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NHC FORECAST HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WELL OUT EAST FOR 160 NAUTICAL MILES WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AREAS AS WELL AS WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
LABOR DAY...AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WIND OVER LAND
AT THIS POINT COULD REACH GALE FORCE BUT THIS COULD CHANGE TO A
HIGHER EXPECTED WIND IF TRACK VARIES EAST OR WIND RADII EXPAND
EASTWARD. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH DISCONTINUED FROM MOBILE COUNTY EAST
TO OKALOOSA COUNTY AND REPLACED BY HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES. THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WOULD COMMENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WIND
BY LABOR DAY WILL BRING WIND STRESS INDUCED PILING INCREASING THE
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT SUNDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. REGION WILL REMAIN IN
THAT SMALLER NEAP TIDE CYCLE THROUGH LABOR DAY...ALTHOUGH TIDAL
RANGES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. THAT IS...PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL NOT VARY FROM HIGH TO LOW BY MORE THAN ABOUT 8 TO 10
INCHES MOST LOCATIONS. IN SUMMARY THE TIDE ANOMALIES WILL BE 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM PENSACOLA TO POINTS WEST AND 2 TO 4 FEET FROM
PENSACOLA TO POINTS EAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THOSE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COAST SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING
GUSTAV. A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD TREND OR ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK ONLY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK GUSTAV WOULD PRESENT TO THE AREA.

/77 DALY

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. BEYOND TUESDAY GUSTAV WOULD MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
POPS ARE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY BEFORE CONCERNS WITH TROPICAL
STORM...OR BY THEN HURRICANE...HANNA MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA. NHC TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TURN HANNA SOUTHWEST APPROACHING CUBA BY THURSDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS...GFS AND ECMWF...THEN TURN HANNA NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH...
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. GFS STALLS AND TAKES HANNA NORTH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...
MOVING IT UP THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ECMWF ROTATES HANNA ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THEN UP THE EASTERN GULF TOWARDS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IN THOSE SCENARIOS
IS NOT APPRECIABLY HIGH...SO MUST WAIT BEFORE ANY SPECIFICS ON HANNA
WILL BE AVAILABLE.

/77 DALY

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

/12 SHEPHERD

&&

.MARINE...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TONIGHT. GUSTAV EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF THIS
HURRICANE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS
AND ADVISORIES CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE...AND ARE
RECOMMENDED TO REMAIN IN PORT.

/12 SHEPHERD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  74  84 /  10  50  50  70
PENSACOLA   74  90  75  85 /  20  50  60  70
DESTIN      75  88  77  86 /  30  50  60  70
EVERGREEN   71  89  72  86 /  10  40  40  60
WAYNESBORO  70  88  72  85 /  10  40  40  70
CAMDEN      71  91  72  88 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-312300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
600 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM MOBILE UNTIL
THE CURRENT TROPICAL EVENT HAS ENDED. ALL INLAND AND MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD REFER TO HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENTS UNDER
WMO HEADER WTUS84 KMOB. ALSO...GRAPHICAL TROPICAL IMPACTS MAY BE
VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/TROPICAL