Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  FOG HAS BURNED
OFF ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR NEAR PNS AND NPA WHICH STILL HAVE 1/2
MILE IN FOG...BUT THIS IS IMPROVING QUICKLY.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

********  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **********

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...FIRST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS IN
THE SHORT TERM AND THE DEVELOPING WX...WITH SEVERAL PASSING SYSTEMS
IN THE EXTENDED TO DELA WITH. CURRENTLY...THE CAUSE OF THE CURRENT
WEATHER OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS IS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. ITS
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT IS OVER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A RIDGE ALSO STRETCHED NORTH OVER THE US/CA ROCKIES. AS EXPECTED...A
WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF
COAST...JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER FL TO SOUTHEASTERN
MS...THEN HEADING NORTHWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
LA/SW MISS. TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE TX/MEX BORDER. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
LA...TO CENTRAL AL...WITH THE LINE BEING ELEVATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84.

&&

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WARM DAY EXPECTED AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KMOB EASTWARD TO KTLH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT LIFTS NORTH WITH THE LOW LVL JET. THE NEXT ROUND...IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE...IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE LINE WILL
APPROACH THE ALABAMA STATE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS FAIRLY
SMALL DUE TO A UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 65...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST...CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED BUT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT IN THIS EVENT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN. GENERALLY USED TO BLEND OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER
MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS. /13

.LONG TERM(SATURDAY ON)...SATURDAY STARTS WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE CAUSE MOVING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN US ROCKIES....WITH ENERGY TRAILING TO OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
PASSING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN SOME
RE-ENFORCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MONDAY AS ANOTHER BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SETTING UP BY THE END OF MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS SYSTEM
PASSING OVER THE FA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...A BIT SLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY TAILING THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...WITH STRONGER...OFFSHORE FLOW
FOLLOWING. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ORGANIZES OVER NORTHERN MEX NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS LATE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN WILL WILL GIVE WAY TO A
RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS NOT
ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT EXCHANGE OF AIRMASSES WITH THIS PASSING
SYSTEM...SO DO NOT FORESEE ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS INTO THE COMING. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  53  70  47  70 /  60  40  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   72  57  70  50  68 /  80  50  10  10  05
DESTIN      72  59  70  53  67 /  80  70  20  10  05
EVERGREEN   72  51  68  42  69 /  70  50  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  72  48  65  40  66 /  60  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      72  49  65  41  66 /  60  40  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

13/16

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
831 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

ALZ058-221500-
CRENSHAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUVERNE...
831 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHERN CRENSHAW
COUNTY...

AT 831 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRANTLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GLENWOOD AND LUVERNE THROUGH 900 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.